The Filibuster Is Going Down! Er, partly.


Coffee Apocalypse

From the New York Times:

Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, is prepared to move forward with a vote that could severely limit the minority party’s ability to filibuster presidential nominees, possibly as early as this week, Democrats said Tuesday. [...]

But among Democrats there is a strong consensus that Republicans have gone too far in their latest attempt to block White House appointments, by denying Mr. Obama any more judges for what is considered the most important appeals court in the country despite three vacancies.

On Monday, they denied him his third pick in less than a month to the court, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. [...]

Support has been building in the Democratic caucus to make the change, which would most likely affect federal judges and executive branch nominees like cabinet members. It would not affect the minority party’s right to filibuster Supreme Court nominees or legislation.

I’m all for this, although I’d rather see the filibuster nuked altogether. I just wish they had done it the day after Obama’s inauguration.

Filibuster supporters may say “well, what about the next time a Republican is in the White House?”

1) If the Democrats can hold on to either the White House or the Senate – which I think is moderately likely, and will be more so over the years as White people become a smaller proportion of the electorate – then it’s not a concern.

2) If the GOP wins both the White House and the Senate majority, then it deserves to see its nominations succeed. That’s democracy for ya.

3) As Scott Lemieux writes, “To see what would happen if the filibuster wasn’t used against judicial nominees, we would have to imagine a scenario…exactly like all of American history between the ratification of the Constitution and the filibuster of Abe Fortas nearly 200 years later. It’s not clear why this was any worse than the current institutional arrangement.”

(Actually, Kennedy has been significantly better than Bork would have been. But that time has passed; no advantage will be gained by Democrats going along with the GOP essentially not wanting to allow any but a tiny number of significant Obama nominations to pass. Because:)

4) If the Democrats don’t nuke the filibuster, the Republicans will just as soon as they control both the White House and the Senate. There is no future time in which the filibuster will be a useful tool for moderating GOP nomination choices.

Jonathan Bernstein has a good summary of the bargaining positions:

Think of this as a bargaining game, with the goal of (most of the majority) Democrats to get a situation where filibusters are used, rarely, against nominees who are thought by the minority as far out of the mainstream. They don’t want an outcome with no filibusters, because they want to preserve their position when they are in the minority; but they also don’t want more frequent filibusters.* As Republicans push farther and farther from the Democratic ideal point, total elimination of the filibuster becomes a more and more appealing second-best end point.

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8 Responses to The Filibuster Is Going Down! Er, partly.

  1. 1
    RonF says:

    1) If the Democrats can hold on to either the White House or the Senate – which I think is moderately likely, and will be more so over the years as White people become a smaller proportion of the electorate, ….

    Or – not:

    In Wisconsin, Republicans held a rural assembly seat in central Wisconsin with 67 percent of the vote as expected but also held a highly competitive seat in south Milwaukee County that Barack Obama carried in 2008 and only narrowly lost last year. Republican Jessie Rodriguez, who won 56 percent of the vote yesterday, will become the first female Hispanic Republican to serve in the assembly. She was born in El Salvador but moved to the U.S. in the 1980s to avoid that country’s civil war. She is currently an outreach coordinator for Hispanics for School Choice — a nonprofit organization that helps low-income parents find schools for their children.

    Hispanics and blacks are starting to wake up to the fact that the party that is pro-choice when it comes to abortion – a procedure that I’ll wager disproportionately kills is disproportionately used to kill more black and Hispanic fetuses than it does white ones – but is decidedly anti-choice when it comes to letting parents select educational alternatives for their children.

  2. 2
    RonF says:

    Hm. I apparently missed a close blockquote, and “disproportionately kills” should be “is disproportionately used to kill”.

    [Fixed! --Amp]

  3. 3
    Ampersand says:

    Ron, I think that’s a terribly spindly and delicate straw of hope you’re grasping with both hands like a lottery ticket. A Republican-leaning district during a presidential election, is a strongly Republican district during a special election. It would have been surprising if Rodriguez had lost, and she’ll face a competitive race in 2016.

    I’d be curious to know how Rodreguez did among Hispanic voters (who are about 7% of the electorate in that county during a normal election).. I wonder if anyone did high-quality exit polling?

  4. 4
    RonF says:

    Ron, I think that’s a terribly spindly and delicate straw of hope you’re grasping with both hands like a lottery ticket.

    One data point does not a curve/trend make, granted. Still, it’s interesting.

    A Republican-leaning district during a presidential election, is a strongly Republican district during a special election.

    Say what? Why?

  5. 5
    Ampersand says:

    Because, generally speaking, older white people – the Republican base – are more likely to come out and vote during mid-term elections (and I believe special elections as well). Cook Political Report has an article on this here.

  6. 6
    Scott Lemieux says:

    Actually, Kennedy has been significantly better than Bork would have been.

    Oh, for sure, but Bork wasn’t filibustered; he was defeated on a straight up-or-down vote.

  7. 7
    Ampersand says:

    D’oh! Thanks for the correction, Scott.

  8. 8
    Jake Squid says:

    Hispanics and blacks are starting to wake up to the fact that the party that is pro-choice when it comes to abortion…

    Wait. Are you saying that Black and Hispanic voters have been unaware of this fact for more than 3 decades? Your opinion of that segment of the electorate is farcically low.