Here’s a mini-sociology lesson. I found this article today, which includes the following quote:
Dr. Raoult Ratard took a unique approach to studying the suicide rate because there have been no reliable estimates of how many people have returned since the storm. Various sources have put the number at anywhere from fewer than 200,000 to around 250,000 out of a pre-Katrina population of just under 455,000.
So, Ratard looked at the number of deaths from October 2005 (when the city was reopened after the storm) through March 2006, and compared that total to the number of deaths of all kinds during the same period the year before.
The pre-storm death total was 2,507; post-storm, 1,024. That means the number of deaths was down by about three-fifths.
Then Ratard looked at suicides. The number of pre-storm suicides was 16; post-storm, 11. That means the number of suicides was down by only about one-third.
So, the suicide rate appears to have gone up. But the totals are too small to conclude that Katrina caused the increase, Ratard said. “They are not big enough so that you can say with certainty that it would not be due to chance,” he said.
There are a few important sociological issues that this brought up for me. First, I think, while innovative, the methodology is fairly weak. One of the problems is that we may also need to count Katrina evacuees in this as well. Of course, this is going to be damn near impossible to do, since the Katrina Diaspora is so dispersed across the US. Now we could argue that only people in the city limits over the entire year should be counted, but I think if a researcher wanted look at suicides that could be directly or indirectly related to Katrina, he or she needs to think well outside the city boundaries. The other methodological weakness is the small numbers. I think it is irresponsible to report findings that are not statistically significant as if they are. I certainly don’t blame the authors of the study for this, but I do worry that people are going to get the wrong impression of strength o the findings. The other issue that I’d like to bring up, is the distinction between correlation and causation. This data only shows a correlation between suicide and Katrina, and one that may not even be significant. One funny example commonly used in sociology to demonstrate the distinction between causation and correlation is the strong correlation between the amount of ice cream sold in stores and the murder rate. In the US the murder rate goes up when people buy more ice cream, and when they buy less ice cream the murder rate goes down. Now anybody with a lick of sense knows that ice cream doesn’t drive people into murderous rages. There is a correlation, but we know ice cream doesn’t cause murder or for that matter higher murder rates don’t cause people to eat more ice cream. So why is this? Well, the murder rates (especially in temperate climates) tend to be higher in the summer, and the warmer weather is also correlated with people eating more ice cream. In the study above, they probably could do case studies of the suicides and try to determine if Katrina played a role. The researcher does note this problem, but I worry that the average reader may not realize why this important.
On another note, I do think there is a reasonable argument to be made as to why the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina could be related to an increase in suicides. This argument goes way back to one of the founder’s of sociology: Emile Durkheim. Durkheim is best know for his study on suicide. Durkheim identified various types of suicide, including anomie/anomic suicide. This type of suicide is related to conditions where social norms break down. The Durkheim website cited above describes the various types of anomic suicide as follows:
- Acute economic anomie: sporadic decreases in the ability of traditional institutions (such as religion, guilds, pre-industrial social systems, etc.) to regulate and fulfill social needs.
- Chronic economic anomie: long term dimunition of social regulation. Durkheim identified this type with the ongoing industrial revolution, which eroded traditional social regulators and often failed to replace them. Industrial goals of wealth and property were insufficient in providing happiness, as was demonstrated by higher suicide rates among the wealthy than among the poor.
- Acute domestic anomie: sudden changes on the microsocial level resulted in an inability to adapt and therefore higher suicide rates. Widowhood is a prime example of this type of anomie.
- Chronic domestic anomie: referred to the way marriage as an institution regulated the sexual and behavioral means-needs balance among men and women. Marriage provided different regulations for each, however. Bachelors tended to commit suicide at higher rates than married men because of a lack of regulation and established goals and expectations. On the other hand, marriage has traditionally served to overregulate the lives of women by further restricting their already limited opportunities and goals. Unmarried women, therefore, do not experience chronic domestic anomie nearly as often as do unmarried men.
I suspect this is the sort of theory that is guiding the study mentioned above. Unfortunately, it’s hard to know whether or not the suicide rate in New Orleans has truly increased. In spite of the sound theoretically argument that can be made about why the suicide rate should increase under such conditions, it is going to take a little more time and a little better methodology for us to determine whether or not Katrina cause a surge in suicides.
Another big problem with suicide rates is that there is considerable latitude in what gets counted as a suicide. Coroners have to make judgement calls about things like single car accidents, falls out of windows, and even gunshot wounds. For example, the town of Beachyhead in England, where the British famously go to throw themselves off cliffs, famously slashed its suicide rate in half in a single year . . . by hiring a new coroner. He ruled falls off the cliff accidental unless there was strong evidence for suicide, such as a note or clothes left neatly folded in a pile by the site of the jump.
It seems easily possible that New Orleans has replaced some of its medical examiners, or lost some of the more conservative ones, or that for some other reason they have gotten looser about ruling in favour of suicide. That is not to say that the suicide rate hasn’t gone up . . . it seems intuitive to me that it would (although suicide rates actually tend to drop in the immediate aftermath of a disaster). Just something to consider.
I think the critics miss the point. This is not a comprehensive, fully-funded study. It’s a quick, back-of-the-napkin calculation which simply points out that there may be a problem here that needs to be looked into a little further. That suicides very likely went up after Katrina is not rocket science, or some earth-shattering revelations without precedent. I think Ratard’s calculation is intriguing. It’s definitely conservative, in that it doesn’t even attempt to deal with the aftermath of Katrina for people who settled somewhere else. But it’s a start. And in the absence of real data, Ratard came up with something.
Data isn’t free. It costs somebody something to track changes and get numbers. Why certain things are counted effectively on a month-to-month basis and other things are scarcely counted at all is a very good introduction to basic political priorities. Since the powers that be can’t even be bothered to house people very well, is it any wonder that nobody will provide the funds to measure the “human capital” costs?
while tracking the diaspora across the US is hard to do, it isn’t hard to expand your search to parishes like jefferson, st. tammany, & east baton rouge where so many evacuees have gone while in the process of actively rebuilding their homes. politicians all over the place down here (esp. nagin) are fond of “orleans parish only” data sets. but when i look around, none of the data match what my eyes see. that’s because there’s this uber-rush-hour every day as people pour into the city from where they’re staying with family and friends in the metro area.
personally, let me tell you the mental health situation here stinks. you want happy pills, it’s not hard to find a doctor who will give them to you. problem is, they don’t really work on the underlying PTSD & consequential disorders. they just mask symptoms. and then they stop working so the doc switches you to a different pill which works for another few months. and so on and so on.
there is no such thing as psychiatry or psychology anymore. just psychopharmocology. i have been trying to get therapy for my post-katrina problems for months now. the pills aren’t working. and there is no therapy situation available. the few community resources are only for drug addicts, alcoholics, criminals, and the severely psychotic. and even then, they suck and are over-taxed. so if you’re just depressed, near-suicidal, dealing with nightmares, roaring bouts of uncontrollable unpredictable rage, and just generally losing your fuckin’ mind, it’s “here, have another pill! hope this one works for you! come back in three months if it doesn’t!”
so you walk around so sedated that you’re falling asleep in front of the monitor during the middle of the day or you’re falling asleep while changing a frickin’ diaper and thankfully your head is resting on the edge of the changing table so the damn baby doesn’t fall off. so then you stop taking your pills during the day because you need to be awake so your kids don’t kill each other while you’re sleeping and so that you don’t have a car accident while picking them up from school. but then, well, if you’re not on the pills, they can’t make you happy, huh? and so you start to have these panic attacks and rage attacks and nightmares and depreession pits where nothing matters.
well-meaning friends who aren’t here say things like “you need to get yourself some help” and “talk to someone about it” but there isn’t anyone to talk to or get help from. nothing but another pile of pills. people who are here don’t say anything. just “how’s it goin?” and when you go “uh-huh” they know exactly what you mean and don’t ask any more ’cause they’re in the same boat or worse.
but i’m telling you right off, i know more than 11 people personally that have committed suicide in the past year. only one was actually listed on the death certificate as a suicide.
sorry about that everybody.
can ya tell today ain’t one of the better days?
Thanks for sharing that proud to swim home. I think it really highlights the importance of combating anomie as a way to help people with mental health. All the pills in the world ain’t gonna rebuild the city.
I feel you.
The researcher just looked at raw numbers and didn’t bother to attempt any kind of per-capita calculation? The raw number of suicides in New York is higher than the raw number of suicides in Portland, ME but you can’t form any conclusion whatsoever until you convert it into per-capita.
This report from the American Psychiatric Association details the discriminatory treatment of evacuees with psychiatric disabilities.
Among many things that may impact gathering of statistical data is the fact that because shelter administrators weren’t trained in accommodating people with psychiatric disabilities, many were jailed, put in nursing homes or other institutions, or simply turned away.
I wondered about this: Were evacuees allowed to self-administer medication while in shelters? If, for example, an epileptic was not allowed to keep their drugs (which may be barbituates) and a shelter wasn’t set up to lock the drugs up safely and still help the evacuee get them, that otherwise functional person might have ended up in some institution they still can’t get free from.
Not the people with epilepsy have psychiatric disabilities or are prone to suicide, but if this sort of obstacle was faced by most evacuees with psychiatric disabilities who sought help from shelters, than that significantly skews the statistics of who is even available in New Orleans right now to be having suicidal tendencies.
Blue,
Those are some good points. I mused very early on about how many people would have difficulty evacuating because of psychiatric and physical disabilities, but the treatment of these populations afterward is probably a hidden disaster. Part of the reason the elderly population is so vulnerable to these disasters is related to ableism.
The pessimist in me thinks that many people with mental health issues and psychiatric disabilities weren’t getting adequate treatment before Katrina, after it I can imagine that it has gone from bad to worse.
Rachel,
I’ve had those thoughts too.
I find the high suicide rate in St. Tammany parish alarming and I intend to look further into this issue. What is about St. Tammany that makes for the highest suicide rate in the state? Does anyone have any idea of what could be going on besides the obvious Katrina mess. Much of the parish was no affected by the storm. hmmmmmmm
I wish there were better data. I want to know who the victims are.
I have interviewed a few people trapped in what is apparently a gulag Drug Court system in St. Tammany. That is one group of stress-out, hopeless people reportedly subjected to very long and very demanding probations. Life at the tipping point.
I also did a docket search and learned that there are 3 times the number of civil rights Federal filings in St. Tammany than there are for BOTH Orleans and Jefferson Parishes combined.