{"id":1063,"date":"2004-09-07T06:48:23","date_gmt":"2004-09-07T14:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/archives\/2004\/09\/07\/convention-bounce\/"},"modified":"2004-09-07T06:48:23","modified_gmt":"2004-09-07T14:48:23","slug":"convention-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=1063","title":{"rendered":"Convention Bounce?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Matt Yglesias’s<\/a> noticed quick turn around polls showed big bounces for both Kerry and Bush during their respective parties’ conventions. However, later polls showed significant erosions. He highlights the most recent eroding bounce: <\/p>\n

Time and Newsweek both registered massive bounces for Bush during the Republican National Convention. Rasmussen says he would be showing Bush with a five point bounce (and, therefore, a four point lead) except his Saturday sample was terrible for Bush, giving him a slight 1.2 percent lead in the three day moving average. Now Gallup is showing a two point bounce based on a weekend poll that’s moved Bush from one point behind to one point ahead (and now we’re in the territory where sampling error matters, so it’s not entirely clear than anything changed at all).<\/div>\n

Matt wonders about people’s psychology, but the phenomenon may have nothing to do with psychology. I suspect the quick turn around bounce may be due to slightly greater numbers of Democrats staying home during the DNC convention and answering the phone, resulting in a pro-Kerry sampling bias. Later on, Republicans stay home to watch the RNC convention resulting in a pro-Bush bias. On the weekend, phone answering rates go back to normal, resulting in the ordinary “people who answer the phone” bias. This erases the effect of the sampling bias that would occur during a convention.<\/p>\n

All three would be examples of the type of sampling bias that is not<\/i> accounted for in the sampling error reported for polls in news reports.<\/p>\n

The issue is also discussed at Pandagon.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Matt Yglesias’s noticed quick turn around polls showed big bounces for both Kerry and Bush during their respective parties’ conventions. However, later polls showed significant erosions. He highlights the most recent eroding bounce: Time and Newsweek both registered massive bounces … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections-and-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1063"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1063\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}