{"id":13177,"date":"2011-04-20T16:38:52","date_gmt":"2011-04-20T23:38:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=13177"},"modified":"2011-04-20T18:28:28","modified_gmt":"2011-04-21T01:28:28","slug":"do-most-americans-now-favor-marriage-equality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=13177","title":{"rendered":"Do Most Americans Now Favor Marriage Equality?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pollmaven Nate Silver<\/a> “charts the trend from all available public polls on same-sex marriage going back to 1988.” The results don’t look good for opponents of same-sex marriage.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Silver writes:<\/p>\n

There is a margin of error associated with the calculation of the trendline, so it is too soon to say with confidence that support for gay marriage has become the plurality position (let alone the majority one). Other polls \u2014 like a Pew survey released in March \u2014 continue to show opinion split about evenly.<\/p>\n

However, opponents of gay marriage almost certainly no longer constitute a majority; just one of the last nine polls has shown opposition to gay marriage above 50 percent. […]<\/p>\n

At the same time, the people who turn out to vote are considerably older than the population as a whole, so gay marriage will not perform quite as well at the ballot booth as in surveys of the general population. In addition, whenever a position is gaining ground, its newly won support is often tentative and can be peeled away by an effective counter-campaign.<\/p>\n

But Republican candidates, who have placed less emphasis on gay marriage in recent years, probably cannot expect their opposition to it to be a net electoral positive for them except in select circumstances. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The same-sex marriage fight isn’t over, but I’m very confident in the eventual outcome. In the long run, victories at the ballot box are driven by victories in public opinion; if the trendline doesn’t change in the next ten years, I don’t see how the anti-SSM position will remain viable policy except in the most conservative states.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pollmaven Nate Silver “charts the trend from all available public polls on same-sex marriage going back to 1988.” The results don’t look good for opponents of same-sex marriage. Silver writes: There is a margin of error associated with the calculation … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,112],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crossposted-on-tada","category-same-sex-marriage"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13177"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13180,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13177\/revisions\/13180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}