![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/romney_and_cain.jpg\" "\\"romney_and_cain\\"")
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The other side’s primaries are so much fun. From my perspective, it’s all entertainment, no skin in the game.<\/p>\n
I had a long argument with a couple of my housemates about the GOP primary and the upcoming presidential election. My prediction: Mitt Romney will win the primary, and then beat Obama in the general election.<\/p>\n
Here’s what I was thinking:<\/p>\n
1) GOP primary voters don’t really love any of their options with a passion, and some Republicans (like some liberals) have issues <\/a>with Mormons<\/a>. But they really, really <\/em>hate Barack Obama — “From hell’s heart, I stab at thee. For hate’s sake, I spit my last breath at thee.” ((Melville, quoting Khan Noonien Singh.)) That sort of hate.<\/p>\n So my prediction is that in the end, they’ll settle on Romney<\/a>. ((My favorite thing is this SNL sketch is definitely the Ron Paul gag at the end.)) He’s not the one they want, but he is the one that can (maybe) give them the victory they want.<\/p>\n Although Cain is increasingly looking like a long-shot possibility<\/a>, and I have to admit, this commercial<\/a> is strangely compelling. Cain is likable. Unfortunately, I just don’t see anything else about him that would remotely make him a good president. But if he shocks everyone and becomes the nominee, well, from my perspective as a consumer of politics as entertainment, I’d be happy.<\/p>\n Perry, meanwhile, seemed to be self-destructing even last week, and now he’s running scared<\/a> from the prospect of Republican debates. I think even Republicans who like Perry are secretly doubting he’d fare well against Obama in a debate.<\/p>\n 2) Then comes the general election (which won’t be so much fun for me). Some general points:<\/p>\n 2a) Of Americans who don’t bother to vote, the vast majority already know who they’re going to vote for in November: They’re definitely voting for Obama, or they’re definitely voting for whoever the Republican is. Nearly all the votes are already settled.<\/p>\n 2b) Americans who vote but are genuinely undecided are high-information, well-informed intellectuals carefully weighing the man this sentence is absolute bullshit, isn’t it? Undecided voters, by and large, don’t know anything and don’t want to know anything. They’ll mostly wake up and vote based on how good they’re feeling that morning. Which is why economic conditions<\/a> (regardless of cause) are so important to winning elections, and why I predict that Obama will lose, lose, lose.<\/p>\n 2c) It won’t help Obama that his voters are simply less enthused<\/a>. And if the Republican is Romney… well, sure, Democrats dislike Romney, but we don’t HATE him yet. Not like the way Kahn hated Kirk. (If the Republicans do nominate Rick Perry, that would do wonders for Democratic enthusiasm.)<\/p>\n 2d) Romney is bland but competent. If he’s the candidate, he’ll be well-advised, hard-working and cautious. ((Not unlike Obama, come to think of it.)) Given Obama’s weaknesses — an incumbent president running in a staggering economy is like a marathon runner carrying a sofa — that’ll be enough. On the other hand, if one of the other folks is the nominee, who knows?<\/p>\n So that’s why I’m predicting that our next president — alas — is Mitt Romney. Thoughts? Speculations? Rambles? Conspiracy theories? Recipes for cupcakes shaped like Herman Cain’s head? Post ’em here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The other side’s primaries are so much fun. From my perspective, it’s all entertainment, no skin in the game. I had a long argument with a couple of my housemates about the GOP primary and the upcoming presidential election. My … Continue reading