{"id":14908,"date":"2012-01-20T22:20:36","date_gmt":"2012-01-21T06:20:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=14908"},"modified":"2012-01-20T22:28:05","modified_gmt":"2012-01-21T06:28:05","slug":"pre-south-carolina-power-rankings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=14908","title":{"rendered":"Pre-South Carolina Power Rankings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>So with a victory in New Hampshire and a <del>win<\/del> <del>tie<\/del> close second in Iowa, Mitt Romney&#8217;s got it all sewn up, right? A victory in South Carolina and it&#8217;s all over.<\/p>\n<p>Possibly.<\/p>\n<p>Because just at the moment Mittens got a hammerlock on the nomination, he went and had arguably his worst week in the six years of hiscampaign for the presidency &#8212; a week of gaffes, missteps, and a transformation into a caricature of a rich, obnoxious, out-of-touch plutocrat, which replaced his previous image as a flip-flopping, kind of geeky, out-of-touch plutocrat.<\/p>\n<p>So what does this do to the power rankings? What about Ron Paul? And where does Colbert debut? It&#8217;s time to play power rankings.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Republicans<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>1. Fmr. Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney (Last Rank: 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/mitt.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin-left: 7px; margin-right: 7px; margin-top: 3px; margin-bottom: 3px;\" title=\"mitt\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/mitt.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"132\" height=\"192\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Mittens is still in a commanding position to win the nomination. He&#8217;s still got the best national organization, the most money in the bank, and a field that is still incredibly weak. He even had Jon Huntsman drop out of the race, which should earn him all 73 of Huntsman&#8217;s national supporters, not to mention Huntsman&#8217;s cadre of fluffers\u00a0inside the Beltway. Even if he drops South Carolina on Saturday, he&#8217;s still the odds-on favorite to win the nomination. That hasn&#8217;t changed. But in many ways, Mitt Romney has never been in a more precarious position in his six years of campaigning for this office.<\/p>\n<p>It didn&#8217;t have to be this way. All Mitt really had to after winning\u00a0New Hampshire was to not screw things up. If he just could get through\u00a0the week without some kind of disastrous misstep, he would win South\u00a0Carolina going away, and the race would be over. Yet even before the votes were counted in New Hampshire, what did Mitt do? Start acting\u00a0like the rich, out-of-touch guy he is.<\/p>\n<p>He said that he &#8220;liked to fire people&#8221; who provide services to him &#8212;\u00a0yes, it was said about insurance companies, but the words weren&#8217;t the\u00a0ones a former takeover king needed to say. He declared, in all\u00a0seriousness, that discussions of income inequality were only driven by\u00a0envy, and should be discussed, not by politicians, but away from the\u00a0public in &#8220;quiet rooms.&#8221; He said that he didn&#8217;t make much money on\u00a0speaking fees &#8212; fees that were running around $360,000 a year. He\u00a0admitted that he pays just 15 percent in taxes &#8212; a rate about half of\u00a0that paid by most Americans, that, yes, is legal, \u00a0but certainly\u00a0doesn&#8217;t make him seem like a man of the people.<\/p>\n<p>And worst of all, as his opponents on the right attacked him for being\u00a0out-of-touch, Romney flailed, trying to argue that the attacks were\u00a0driven by a hatred of capitalism. He said that he&#8217;d created one\u00a0hundred thousand jobs while at Bain, then ten thousand, then\u00a0&#8220;thousands,&#8221; then back to one hundred thousand. He simply could not\u00a0find a counterattack that worked.<\/p>\n<p>And remember &#8212; this is, was, and always will be Mitt&#8217;s Achilles heel.\u00a0He comes across as an out-of-touch plutocrat because he is an\u00a0out-of-touch plutocrat, a guy who really does think $360,000 is not\u00a0that much money.<\/p>\n<p>A better politician could cover that. A better politician would work\u00a0to learn, if only by rote, that average Americans aren&#8217;t nearly as\u00a0well off as they are, and that they have to learn to communicate in\u00a0ways that don&#8217;t advertise that fact.<\/p>\n<p>But Mitt is not a good politician. He has a glass jaw. And while he\u00a0probably will still win the Republican nomination &#8212; after all, look\u00a0at the craptacular field he&#8217;s running against &#8212; he&#8217;s looking more and\u00a0more like a fatally flawed candidate.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Mitt is in serious trouble. Newt is leading &#8212; and likely to win\u00a0&#8212; South Carolina, which was always Mitt&#8217;s firewall. Mitt&#8217;s national\u00a0support is in freefall. If he loses South Carolina, he could be in\u00a0jeopardy of losing the nomination. And even if he somehow muddles\u00a0through, he&#8217;s now viewed as seriously damaged goods by Republicans and\u00a0Democrats alike.<\/p>\n<p>Throughout Obama&#8217;s term, I&#8217;ve argued that we are essentially living a\u00a0mirror-universe 1980s, with Obama playing the part of alternate\u00a0Reagan. If that&#8217;s the case, then we&#8217;ve entered mirror-1984. And if the\u00a0economy is indeed picking up &#8212; as it appears to be &#8212; and it Mitt\u00a0wins the nomination &#8212; as he still probably will &#8212; this could end up\u00a0echoing that election. If Mitt loses the nomination &#8212; well, then\u00a0Obama could do nothing but sing Al Green songs until 2013.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>2. Fmr. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga. (LR: 5)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/newt1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin-left: 7px; margin-right: 7px; margin-top: 3px; margin-bottom: 3px;\" title=\"newt\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/newt1-200x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"140\" height=\"210\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>After Iowa, and especially after New Hampshire, Newt looked pretty\u00a0well dead in the water. He was back in the single digits both times,\u00a0and it looked very much like Mitt&#8217;s attacks on him had worked.<\/p>\n<p>But with Perry departing the race, and Santorum unable to get his\u00a0campaign into gear, Newt is really the only quasi-viable candidate\u00a0left who can take out Mitt. And while I don&#8217;t know as &#8220;take out Mitt&#8221;\u00a0is quite enough for Newt to win by itself, it&#8217;s definitely enough to\u00a0make life very hard on Romney in the interim.<\/p>\n<p>The other thing working in Newt&#8217;s favor is that he is willing, as he always has been, to be precisely as evil as he needs to be to win the day. In South Carolina, that&#8217;s meant being flat-out racist (the code &#8212; &#8220;No, I just said &#8216;poor, inner city children\u00a0are lazy bums.&#8217; I never talked about their race.&#8221; &#8212; isn&#8217;t so much a dog-whistle as a foghorn). When he attacked Juan William with a dripping, condescending, &#8220;Now, <em>Juan<\/em>,&#8221; hitting his name as if it was an epithet, he was echoing the worst impulses of those who bought into the Southern Strategy.<\/p>\n<p>Is Newt racist? Does it matter? He&#8217;s certainly willing to use racism to win in South Carolina. And all signs are that it&#8217;s working. It&#8217;s depressing, but racism, misogyny, homophobia, and religious bigotry are all that&#8217;s holding the right together these days, so I can&#8217;t say as I&#8217;m surprised.<\/p>\n<p>Newt\u00a0should win in South\u00a0Carolina. Really, the only question is by how much. If he does&#8230;well,\u00a0South Carolina picks Republican nominees. It&#8217;s done so every single\u00a0time since Reagan. That could be tested if Newt wins; Romney is still\u00a0the odds-on favorite to win, for a variety of reasons. But thanks to\u00a0Mitt&#8217;s loss in Iowa, should Newt win South Carolina he&#8217;ll have won as\u00a0many states as Romney. What&#8217;s more, if Santorum fades (more on him in\u00a0a moment), Newt has a great chance in Florida. At the very least, Newt\u00a0is back in the game in a major, major way. At best, Newt could win the\u00a0nomination.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>3. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas (LR: 3)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/paul1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/paul1-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"180\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Paul continues to putter along, pulling about a fifth of the vote, not\u00a0rising, not falling. Will he win the nomination? No. Will he send some\u00a0Ronulans to the GOP convention? Sure. Will he run as a third-party\u00a0candidate? Maybe. We&#8217;ll see soon enough.<\/p>\n<p>What is interesting, I think, is that the Paul flirtation on the left\u00a0seems to be dimming somewhat. I&#8217;ll get into the polling when we hit\u00a0the third party section, but suffice to say that Paul is pulling much\u00a0more from Republicans than Democrats. Of course, that makes sense:\u00a0Paul&#8217;s politics are, at heart, the politics of Pat Buchanan, only not\u00a0quite so anti-gay. Yes, that makes him anti-war, sort of. Pitchfork\u00a0Pat is, too.<\/p>\n<p>Paul will end 2012 like he did in 2008 &#8212; he&#8217;ll have his supporters,\u00a0he&#8217;ll be a potential candidate in 2016 if he&#8217;s still alive &#8212; but he\u00a0has no chance of actually winning the GOP nomination. He never did.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>4. The Rev. Sir Dr. Stephen T. Colbert, DFA (LR: NR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/colbert.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/colbert-300x222.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"210\" height=\"155\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Colbert makes his debut in the rankings at number four, because he&#8217;s\u00a0certainly driving a significant part of the conversation. Yes, as\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;ved=0CDIQqQIwAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2012%2F01%2F20%2F1056751%2F-Chuck-Todd-takes-on-the-possible-agenda-of--Stephen-Colbert&amp;ei=hEwaT-3FLJTrgQfEwLGlCw&amp;usg=AFQjCNHZn6ceSZ3XCne1cihxlzHcGbpP6w&amp;sig2=bpj8QghYnqyo2LVsl1iRlg\" target=\"_blank\">Chuck Todd managed to discover<\/a>, Colbert is making a mockery of the\u00a0post-<em>Citizens United<\/em> landscape. But it so desperately needs to be\u00a0mocked. Indeed, what we have now is an almost\u00a0worst-of-all-possible-worlds scenario, where companies are able to\u00a0funnel money to shadowy groups that &#8220;don&#8217;t&#8221; coordinate with campaigns.<\/p>\n<p>There could be changes made to the system that would at least mitigate\u00a0the damage. The absurdly broad loopchasms could be tightened;\u00a0reporting requirements could be improved; and frankly, campaign\u00a0donation limits could be removed until we can find a way to overturn\u00a0<em>Citizens United<\/em>, because it would be better if this money was going to\u00a0the campaigns directly. At least they&#8217;d be accountable.<\/p>\n<p>Colbert obviously won&#8217;t win the presidency, and he&#8217;s obviously not\u00a0trying to. But at the very least, he&#8217;s shining a spotlight on the\u00a0serious problems that plague our campaign financing system. And in so\u00a0doing, he&#8217;s managed to explain the problems with our system far better\u00a0than the media in this country. That&#8217;s to his credit. And it&#8217;s a\u00a0serious indictment of not just our campaigns, but our media.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>5. Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Penn. (LR: 2)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/santorum2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"santorum\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/santorum2-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>The Frothy Mix won the Iowa Caucuses Thursday. Unfortunately, the good\u00a0news came too late. South Carolina is clearly more for Gingrich than\u00a0Santorum, and if he finishes a distant fourth there, as appears\u00a0likely, it&#8217;s hard to see how he can continue on.<\/p>\n<p>Santorum blew it, because Santorum really is a lousy candidate. He&#8217;s\u00a0not especially adroit, he&#8217;s not especially charismatic, and his\u00a0positions on contraception put him outside the mainstream of even the\u00a0Republican Party. Moreover, he just doesn&#8217;t know how to shovel the red\u00a0meat to the base the way Newt always has.<\/p>\n<p>About the only way Santorum can continue on is if he surprises in\u00a0South Carolina. The bad news is that if he surprises in South\u00a0Carolina, it will probably be at Newt&#8217;s expense, and if that happens,\u00a0Romney probably wins South Carolina and ends the race. At this point,\u00a0I think it&#8217;s clear the GOP race is down to two men. Santorum is not\u00a0one of them.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>6. Sarah-Jeb B. Christie-Jindal (LR: 6)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/younghickory.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"younghickory\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/younghickory-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>The White Knight is still a possibility. Mitt clearly has the glass\u00a0jaw that Republicans feared he had, and Newt&#8230;well, Newt is great for\u00a0running a campaign that echoes George Wallace, but that&#8217;s kind of a\u00a0problem if you actually want to win.<\/p>\n<p>If Romney can pull out of his nosedive, I think the powers that be\u00a0will leave well enough alone. Romney will probably lose in November,\u00a0but he (probably) won&#8217;t embarrass himself, or blow the party up with\u00a0him. But if Mitt struggles, and it looks like a long and bloody fight\u00a0is going to engulf the party, or &#8212; worse &#8212; that Newt&#8217;s gonna win, I\u00a0could see, say, Jeb Bush stepping forward as a healing figure. Likely?\u00a0Probably not, for a variety of reasons. But possible.<\/p>\n<p>Now, if someone does jump in, it would have to be someone who could\u00a0plug into a national organization. That&#8217;s a very short list. McCain\u00a0could, but he&#8217;s already been tried and found wanting. Sarah Palin has\u00a0a bit of national organization, kinda-sorta, but nothing that&#8217;s\u00a0capable of running an actual campaign. The other oft-touted candidates\u00a0&#8212; Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal &#8212; would all have to\u00a0build a national organization on the fly, while undergoing a seriously\u00a0intensive vetting by an outraged Romney and\/or Gingrich.<\/p>\n<p>For that reason, I really think that if there&#8217;s a white knight, it\u00a0will have to be the former governor of Florida, Jeb Bush. He could\u00a0plug into his brother&#8217;s and father&#8217;s network, he&#8217;s got good name\u00a0recognition, and he meets threshold credibility. Of course, Jeb would\u00a0lose badly, because there&#8217;s really no way Jeb can pretend his brother\u00a0was never president, which has been the strategy of all GOP candidates\u00a0so far. But Jeb could at least lose with dignity, unlike Newt. He is\u00a0the only option if the GOP decides on a &#8220;somebody else&#8221; strategy. For\u00a0that reason, I doubt he&#8217;s gonna be the guy, but it&#8217;s not out of the\u00a0realm of possibility yet.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>7. Fmr. La. Gov. Buddy Roemer (LR: 9)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/roemer1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"roemer\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/roemer1-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Roemer continues to be the non-factor that he&#8217;s been, and like fellow\u00a0non-factor Gary Johnson and previous non-factor Mike Gravel, he&#8217;s now\u00a0toying with a third-party run, on the Americans Elect line.<\/p>\n<p>Will Roemer be a factor there? Well, he certainly won&#8217;t be any less of\u00a0a factor than he has been in the Republican race. But while he meets\u00a0the main Americans Elect criteria &#8212; he&#8217;s old! he&#8217;s white! he&#8217;s sort\u00a0of moderish! &#8212; he doesn&#8217;t really have the name recognition or\u00a0national interest to make that party anything more than the pretend\u00a0sideline that it&#8217;s been.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn&#8217;t mean Roemer&#8217;s going away, of course. Candidates like\u00a0Roemer never go away. He&#8217;ll be running well into 2014. Running as fast\u00a0as he can, far beyond the horizon. Godspeed, Buddy. Godspeed.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>8. Fred Karger (LR: 11)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/karger.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"karger\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/karger-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Karger continues to be the least interesting candidate in the field.\u00a0It&#8217;s not just that he&#8217;s not in the debates. It&#8217;s not just that he&#8217;s\u00a0not planning on a third-party run. It&#8217;s this: can you think of\u00a0anything Fred Karger&#8217;s done over the course of this race? Anything? I\u00a0mean, Buddy Roemer&#8217;s complained that he didn&#8217;t get on Twitter. Gary\u00a0Johnson got some non-endorsement love from Glenn Greenwald.Vermin\u00a0Supreme&#8217;s glitter-bombed He Who Must Not Be Named. He Who Must Not Be\u00a0Named is running graphic anti-choice ads during the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n<p>But what has Karger done? What has he accomplished? Where is his\u00a0influence on the race? Yes, he&#8217;s a gay Republican. So how has he\u00a0pushed the causes of gay rights? How has he influenced the campaign?<\/p>\n<p>And don&#8217;t tell me to look it up. First, I&#8217;ve been following the race\u00a0far closer than anyone should. Second, it&#8217;s not my job to get Karger&#8217;s\u00a0message out. It&#8217;s Karger&#8217;s. Say what you will about Buddy Roemer, but\u00a0he&#8217;s marketed himself very well. Karger? Not so much.<\/p>\n<p>And so Karger can go on, or not; it doesn&#8217;t really matter. He&#8217;s not\u00a0influencing the campaign in any way, shape, or form. He&#8217;s an insult to\u00a0hopeless vanity candidates.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Falling Out:<\/strong> Rick Perry (4), Jon Huntsman (7), Michele Bachmann (8),<br \/>\nJimmy McMillan (10)<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Democrats<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>1. President Barack Obama (LR: 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/obama.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/obama.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"132\" height=\"155\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>I really don&#8217;t know how Obama could be having a better campaign season\u00a0so far. The Republicans have been hammering Mitt Romney &#8212; their only\u00a0candidate with a chance of beating Obama &#8212; and doing so using liberal\u00a0memes. The GOP attacking Mitt is great, but attacking him for firing\u00a0people while at Bain? For being elitist? For not paying as much as we\u00a0plebes? That is a dream come true.<\/p>\n<p>Add to it Mitt&#8217;s never-ending series of gaffes, Newt pushing the party\u00a0into Bircher territory, and the fact that this trainwreck appears to\u00a0be gathering steam, and Obama is really in about as good a position as\u00a0he could possibly be in. And that&#8217;s before you factor in the\u00a0slow-but-steady improvement in the economy, one that&#8217;s starting to\u00a0register with people in the country at large.<\/p>\n<p>Obama will win the Democratic nomination; that much is assured. This\u00a0week showed that, while it will take a lot of work, if that work is\u00a0undertaken, Obama is likely to win reelection. It&#8217;s not certain, of\u00a0course &#8212; nothing ever is in politics. But it&#8217;s more likely than not,\u00a0and it&#8217;s more likely today than it was in December.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>2. Vermin Supreme (LR: NR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/vermin.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/vermin-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"105\" height=\"105\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>I had totally not realized that Vermin Supreme was running. I don&#8217;t\u00a0have much to say about him, although I always have loved his boot-hat.\u00a0And the fact that he glitter-bombed that anti-choice douchebag\u00a0justifies his continued campaign for office.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, Supreme rarely keeps up his race much past New Hampshire,\u00a0because unlike Fred Karger, he realizes that once you&#8217;re made your\u00a0point, you move on. So I doubt Supreme is going to mount a national\u00a0campaign. But I wouldn&#8217;t mind if he did. He&#8217;s got better fashion sense<br \/>\nthan Santorum, a better platform than Gingrich, and he&#8217;s less of a\u00a0douchebag than Romney. Of course, that&#8217;s really true of all of us.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>3. He Who Must Not Be Named (LR:3)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/hhmnbn.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"hhmnbn\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/hhmnbn-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>The anti-choice douchecanoe is still allegedly running, primarily so\u00a0he can run graphic anti-choice ads during the Super Bowl. You know\u00a0those really graphic anti-choice ads that they like to hold up outside\u00a0of events? The ones that make everyone hate the anti-choicers, even\u00a0moderate anti-choicers? Yeah, they&#8217;re going to do that, but on\u00a0television, during the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n<p>And I, for one, am glad. Nobody human wants those ads up during the\u00a0Super Bowl. People want to be left alone. If the ads have any effect,\u00a0it will be to anger America, not at abortion, but at the jerks who ran\u00a0the ad. And so I guess we should thank He Who Must Not Be Named. He&#8217;s\u00a0going to help the pro-choice cause with his run. That doesn&#8217;t make him\u00a0not scum, of course. But at least he&#8217;s doing more for us than he did\u00a0for his side.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Falling Out:<\/strong> Uncommitted (2)<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Third Parties<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>1. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas (Libertarian) (LR: 2)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/paul21.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/paul21-265x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"111\" height=\"126\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Paul edges up to the top spot on the independent list, based on the\u00a0fact that people seem willing to poll about him being a third-party\u00a0candidate, and not so much anyone else (other than Gary Johnson &#8211; more\u00a0on him in a minute).<\/p>\n<p>If Paul runs as a Libertarian, it would pretty much eliminate any\u00a0chance for the GOP to win the presidency. In a hypothetical matchup of\u00a0Obama, Romney, and Paul, Paul draws two-thirds of his support from\u00a0Romney backers. Not only does this indicate that Paul is who we\u00a0thought he is &#8212; a paleoconservative with a libertarian veneer &#8212; but\u00a0it shows that reports of a huge liberal groundswell for Paul have been\u00a0greatly exaggerated. It&#8217;s hard for liberals to support a guy who&#8217;s anti-choice, thinks gay marriage should be illegal if states want it\u00a0to be illegal, and wants to zero out Social Security. And Paul most\u00a0definitely is that guy.<\/p>\n<p>Will Paul run? I don&#8217;t know. It would be foolish of him to do so. On\u00a0the other hand, the guy has an ego, and he may run just based on that.\u00a0As a Democrat, I&#8217;m obviously hoping he does.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>2. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (Americans Elect) (LR: 1)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/bloomberg1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/bloomberg1-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"105\" height=\"105\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Bloomberg has given no indication he&#8217;s running, but I can&#8217;t shake the\u00a0feeling that he&#8217;s Americans Elect&#8217;s dream candidate. He&#8217;s exactly the\u00a0kind of guy that the Beltway folk love &#8212; vaguely \u00a0authoritarian,\u00a0willing to make the underclass knuckle under, happy to put the focus\u00a0on deficits rather than pesky things like taxes.<\/p>\n<p>But while I think Bloomberg is the guy that the Guys Who Dream of a\u00a0Bland White Warrior dream of, I&#8217;m not sure if Bloomberg is willing to\u00a0pull the trigger. He&#8217;s been here before, in 2008, and he didn&#8217;t run\u00a0then, either. Will he decide that 2012&#8217;s the time? I kind of doubt it.\u00a0But until he&#8217;s recruited by Americans Elect and turns them down, he&#8217;s\u00a0on the list.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>3. Fmr. N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson (Libertarian) (LR: 3)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/johnson1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/johnson1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"118\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Johnson pulls about 7 percent in national polls when run against Obama\u00a0and Romney; that&#8217;s 7 percent more than he&#8217;d actually get if he were\u00a0running. But it&#8217;s enough that Johnson should actually get a bit of\u00a0publicity, assuming that Paul doesn&#8217;t steal it by making a third-party\u00a0bid himself.<\/p>\n<p>Would Johnson affect the race? Probably not much. He takes more from\u00a0Romney than Obama, but given that he&#8217;ll probably take less than 1\u00a0percent of the vote, it probably won&#8217;t be decisive.<\/p>\n<p>Johnson, of course, should be the Libertarian Party&#8217;s nominee, rather\u00a0than Paul; Johnson is a much more traditional libertarian\u00a0ideologically. But I&#8217;m guessing if it comes down to Johnson and Paul,\u00a0the Ronulans will seize control of the Libertarian Party. Which would\u00a0be&#8230;well, pretty indistinguishable from the state of affairs before.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>4. Donald Trump (Americans Elect) (LR:4)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/trump.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/trump-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Trump sat alone in his golden chair<br \/>\nTotally motionless except for his hair<br \/>\nCandidates came to his place and grovelled<br \/>\nAt least they did until his big debate was cancelled<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe&#8217;s been bankrupt<br \/>\nHe&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe kinda sucks<\/p>\n<p>Trump lingered last for humility<br \/>\nThinks he could lead the country from sea to shining sea<br \/>\nHe cut his pizza, after that he chewed<br \/>\nIs Trump gonna run? Well if his show isn&#8217;t renewed&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>He&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe bought his hair<br \/>\nHe&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe&#8217;s Trump<br \/>\nHe doesn&#8217;t care<\/p>\n<p>Is this Trump running this fall? I think no.<br \/>\nDoes this Trump have much of a chance? I think no.<br \/>\nIs this Trump kind of a dick? I think so.<br \/>\nIf he runs, will he get his butt kicked? I think so.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>5. Fmr. La. Gov. Buddy Roemer (Americans Elect) (LR: NR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/roemer2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/roemer2-242x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"71\" height=\"88\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Roemer actually would make a good candidate for a new, moderate third\u00a0party if it wasn&#8217;t Americans Elect. Roemer is pretty moderate, really\u00a0does straddle the two parties ideologically, and wouldn&#8217;t be an altogether terrible fit for them.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, he lacks zazz, star power, a certain <em>je ne sais qua<\/em>. He&#8217;s no Joe Lieberman, I&#8217;ll tell you that. And so while he could, and probably should, be the Americans Elect nominee, something tells me they&#8217;ll find someone else &#8212; or quietly fold, just like Unity08 before them.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>6. Robby Wells (Constitution) (LR: NR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/robby-wells.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/robby-wells-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"90\" height=\"90\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Robby Wells is a former head football coach at Savannah State\u00a0University, an HBCU in Savannah, Georgia. Wells himself is white.\u00a0After rolling up an impressive 7-15 record in two seasons, Wells was\u00a0fired, and being the kind of guy who&#8217;d eventually seek the\u00a0Constitution Party&#8217;s nomination, he sued for racial discrimination,\u00a0ultimately settling out of court.<\/p>\n<p>The main question at this point is whether Wells can win the\u00a0Constitution Party&#8217;s endorsement. His platform actually puts him to\u00a0the left of the Republican Party, although, to be fair, there really is no ideological space left to the right of the Republican Party.\u00a0Wells benefits primarily from the fact that nobody else seems to be\u00a0seeking the CP&#8217;s endorsement. Wait. What&#8217;s that? Is &#8212; is that &#8212; Alan\u00a0Keyes&#8217; music?<\/p>\n<p>It isn&#8217;t? Oh well. A guy can dream.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>7. Pastor Terry Jones (Independent) (LR: NR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/jones.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/jones-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"90\" height=\"90\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>You may remember Jones from the time he tried and failed to burn a\u00a0Qur&#8217;an. Well, he&#8217;s back, and this time he&#8217;s running for president. Or\u00a0something. I assume he&#8217;s running on a pro-burning Qur&#8217;an platform.<\/p>\n<p>The main thing Jones makes me think is this: both he and John Bolton\u00a0have goofy white mustaches. Is that a thing? Is it that if you hate\u00a0Muslims, you have to grow a goofy white mustache? Or does your goofy\u00a0white mustache make you so mad that you lash out at the obvious\u00a0culprit &#8212; Muslims? Maybe it&#8217;s a chicken-or-egg thing. I don&#8217;t know. All I know is that if my mustache ever goes simultaneously white and goofy, I&#8217;m shaving.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/uparrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"22\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>8. Kent Mesplay (Green) and\/or Jill Stein (Green) (LR: NR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/greens.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"greens\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/greens-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>Mesplay and Stein are running for the nomination of the Green Party,\u00a0and I think this is a good thing. Not because I know anything about\u00a0either Mr. Mesplay or Ms. Stein &#8212; I don&#8217;t, other than that they&#8217;re probably to\u00a0my left on most issues. No, what&#8217;s good is that they&#8217;re unknown\u00a0activists working on building their party, which is exactly who the\u00a0Greens should nominate.<\/p>\n<p>Three of the four Green Party tickets have been headed by gadflies &#8212;\u00a0Ralph Nader in 1996 and 2000, Cynthia McKinney in 2008. And it&#8217;s badly\u00a0damaged the party. Yes, Nader drew 2 million votes in 2000. But when\u00a0Nader flounced out of the party in 2004, it became apparent that he\u00a0really hadn&#8217;t built the party at all. McKinney&#8217;s bid was ineffective\u00a0as well.<\/p>\n<p>Mesplay and\/or Stein are unlikely to draw a few million votes. But\u00a0they will help build the party. Now, I think it unlikely that the\u00a0Greens in America will ever be more than a fringe party &#8212; our system\u00a0discourages third parties, generally. But they&#8217;ll grow a lot more from\u00a0the grass roots than they will from the top down.<\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/10\/downarrow.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"22\" height=\"21\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"2\" vspace=\"0\" \/>10. Roseanne Barr (Green Tea) (LR: NR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/roseanne.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/moderateleft.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/roseanne-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"105\" height=\"105\" align=\"right\" hspace=\"7\" vspace=\"3\" \/><\/a>I am not making this up. Roseanne Barr &#8212; last seen growing nuts in\u00a0Hawai&#8217;i &#8212; has decided to run for president as a member of the &#8220;Green\u00a0Tea&#8221; party. And for those of you who follow the Twitter, you know that\u00a0Roseanne has launched her campaign by being kind of a puritopian jerk.<\/p>\n<p>Will it play in Peoria? I strongly doubt it. Especially since it&#8217;s\u00a0really easy to say you&#8217;re running for president, but much harder to actually run for president. I suspect Roseanne views this as a way to\u00a0grab some cheap publicity and go.<\/p>\n<p>Still, it&#8217;s early, so at least the run is entertaining. Of course, by\u00a0November she&#8217;ll be elected President, only to tell us later that all\u00a0of reality is a novel that she wrote, and really her kids are married\u00a0to each other&#8217;s fictional spouses and her husband is dead. And that\u00a0will be unforgivable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So with a victory in New Hampshire and a win tie close second in Iowa, Mitt Romney&#8217;s got it all sewn up, right? A victory in South Carolina and it&#8217;s all over. Possibly. Because just at the moment Mittens got &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=14908\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections-and-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14908"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14908\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14913,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14908\/revisions\/14913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}