{"id":16116,"date":"2012-11-05T01:14:30","date_gmt":"2012-11-05T09:14:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=16116"},"modified":"2012-11-05T12:33:46","modified_gmt":"2012-11-05T20:33:46","slug":"half-of-us-are-about-to-collide-rudely-with-reality-i-hope-its-not-my-half","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=16116","title":{"rendered":"Half of us are about to collide rudely with reality. I hope it’s not my half."},"content":{"rendered":"

All the Democrats and lefties I know are pretty confident that Obama will win the election on Tuesday, just from watching the polls<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At the same time, many Republicans seem awfully confident that Romney will win. My friend Jack at Ethics Alarms, in comments<\/a>, wrote:<\/p>\n

[Obama’s not] going to be elected to a second term. […] I am sure. I have my own formula and parameters, just like Nate Silver. The difference is that I know what I\u2019m talking about.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I’m pretty certain that Jack, in fact, knows a lot less about probability and polling than Nate Silver does. But Jack would presumably feel certain I’m wrong. <\/p>\n

Jack’s view is shared by many on the right. Check out this reader poll<\/a> at Battleground Watch (click on “view results”), or look at what folks like Michael Barone<\/a>, George Will<\/a> and Dick Morris<\/a> are saying.<\/p>\n

If Romney wins in a close race, that won’t blow my mind. But if he wins by a landslide, as some conservatives are predicting….<\/p>\n

Anyhow, feel free to use this thread to discuss anything elections-related.<\/p>\n

UPDATE<\/strong>: Ted Frank has the best argument<\/a> for thinking that the polls are overstating Obama’s chances, that I’ve seen.<\/p>\n

And at Ethics Alarms, Jack explains why he thinks Romney has it in the bag: It all comes down to Strong! Leadership!<\/a> My response: Oy<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

All the Democrats and lefties I know are pretty confident that Obama will win the election on Tuesday, just from watching the polls. At the same time, many Republicans seem awfully confident that Romney will win. My friend Jack at … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections-and-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16116"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16118,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16116\/revisions\/16118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}