For a change, this and several posts to follow (to be posted over the next few days) won’t directly discuss the situation of women in Iraq (although everything about Iraq relates to Iraqi women, of course). Instead, I wanted to recommend several articles and blog posts about the political and military situation in Iraq. Some of this will be very old hat to some readers, but for others it will hopefully be interesting.<\/p>\n
First, David Corn very usefully posts an outline of the situation in Iraq<\/a>, written by Larry Johnson, “a former CIA analyst and counterterrorism official at the State Department.” Johnson makes a convincing case that the US, as a matter of cold fact, lacks the political will or military ability to remake Iraq. Here’s a sample, but I recommend reading the whole thing.<\/p>\n We could potentially defeat the Sunni insurgents if we were willing and able to deploy sufficient troops to control the key infiltration routes that run along the Tigris and Euphrates River valleys. But we are neither willing nor able. It would require at least 380,000 troops devoted exclusively to that mission. Part of that mission would entail killing anyone who moved into controlled areas, such as roadways. In adopting those kinds of rules of engagement we would certainly increase the risk of killing innocent civilians. But, we would impose effective control over those routes. That is a prerequisite to gaining control over the insurgency.<\/p>\n We cannot meet the increased manpower requirements in Iraq without a draft. We do not currently have enough troops in the Army and the Marine Corps to supply and sustain that size of force in the field. But, even with a draft, we would be at least 15 months away from having the new batch of trained soldiers ready to deploy. More importantly, there is no political support for a draft. In other words, we’re unwilling to do what is required to even have a shot at winning.<\/p>\n While the insurgency is not likely to acquire sufficient strength to fight and defeat our forces directly in large set piece battles, they do have the wherewithal to destroy infrastructure and challenge our control of lines of communication. The ultimate test of a government’s legitimacy is whether or not it can protect its citizens from threats foreign and domestic. Thus far the Iraqi Government has made scant progress on this front.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n I have to resist the impulse to quote Johnson’s entire article<\/a>; it’s short, but it describes concisely the realities in Iraq that hawks have simply refused to acknowledge, let alone provide a realistic response to.<\/p>\n Too many hawks discuss our options in Iraq as if we’re choosing between withdrawal and victory in Iraq. What is “victory in Iraq”? I’d suggest that, at a minimum, victory requires the establishment of a stable democracy in which (to quote Johnson) “the average Iraqi can move around the country without fear of being killed or kidnapped.” (And remember, the average Iraqi is a woman). That doesn’t seem too much to ask for – but it’s far more than the American military or executive branch is realistically capable of offering.<\/p>\n Bottom line: It doesn’t matter how morally correct an outcome is if it’s not something that we can feasibly bring about in the real world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" For a change, this and several posts to follow (to be posted over the next few days) won’t directly discuss the situation of women in Iraq (although everything about Iraq relates to Iraqi women, of course). Instead, I wanted to … Continue reading