{"id":18765,"date":"2014-06-24T11:35:22","date_gmt":"2014-06-24T18:35:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=18765"},"modified":"2014-06-25T02:07:24","modified_gmt":"2014-06-25T09:07:24","slug":"geroge-wills-preposterous-rape-math","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=18765","title":{"rendered":"Geroge Will’s Preposterous Rape Math"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"george-will-bad-math\"<\/a><\/p>\n

One way unserious people tire you out is by taking 15 minutes to write something unserious. It takes you four hours to undo their ignorance.<\/em> —Ta-Nehisi Coates<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In an amazingly bad column<\/a> about campus rape, George Will discusses some statistics that the White House included in a recent report: (( The report was \u201cRape and Sexual Assault: A Renewed Call to Action<\/a>.\u201d ))<\/p>\n

The statistics are: One in five women is sexually assaulted while in college, and only 12 percent of assaults are reported. Simple arithmetic demonstrates that if the 12 percent reporting rate is correct, the 20 percent assault rate is preposterous. Mark Perry<\/a> of the American Enterprise Institute notes, for example, that in the four years 2009 to 2012 there were 98 reported sexual assaults at Ohio State. That would be 12 percent of 817 total out of a female student population of approximately 28,000, for a sexual assault rate of approximately 2.9 percent \u2014 too high but nowhere near 20\u2009percent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In a later defense of his column, Will doubled down<\/a> on Perry’s math:<\/p>\n

I cited one of the calculations based on it that Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute has performed {link}. So, I think your complaint is with the conclusion that arithmetic dictates, based on the administration\u2019s statistic. The inescapable conclusion is that another administration statistic that one in five women is sexually assaulted while in college is insupportable and might call for tempering your rhetoric about \u201cthe scourge of sexual assault.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

George Will defends his column based on the math. So it’s notable that Will’s math is wrong.<\/p>\n

Will writes “One in five women is sexually assaulted while in college, and only 12 percent of assaults are reported.” Both statistics can be found on page 14 ((Or page 18, if you go by the pdf page numbers rather than the page numbers printed at the bottom.)) of the White House’s report on sexual assault on campus (pdf link<\/a>), although they appear three paragraphs apart.<\/p>\n

What Will neglects to tell his readers is that the “20%” and “12%” statistics come from different studies, and the two studies don’t define “sexual assault” the same way. The “20%” statistic, ((It’s actually 19%, not 20%.)) from a study published in the Journal of American College Health<\/em>, ((“College Women’s Experiences with Physically Forced, Alcohol- or Other Drug-Enabled, and Drug-Facilitated Sexual Assault Before and Since Entering College<\/a>,” Journal of American College Health<\/em>, Volume 57, Issue 6, May-June 2009. A detailed report from this study can be read here (pdf<\/a>).)) includes both rape and sexual battery, and both attempted and completed assaults. In contrast, the “12%” statistic, from a study published by the National Crime Victim Research and Treatment Center, ((“Drug-facilitated, Incapacitated, and Forcible Rape: A National Study,”<\/a> 2007. pdf link<\/a>.)) refers only to completed rapes. <\/p>\n

That means the mathematical comparison Will makes is apples and oranges. The 20% statistic counts “A B C and D,” while the 12% statistic is looking only at “D.” What Will’s math does, when you boil it down, is point out that “A + B + C + D” is higher than “D,” and then claims that makes the statistics “preposterous.” Well, no, the statistics aren’t preposterous – George Will’s math is.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the “98 reported sexual assaults at Ohio State” figure Will uses as a basis of comparison (which comes from Mark Perry’s AIE blogpost<\/a>) enormously undercounts sexual assaults reported by Ohio State students, because it only counts reported rapes that took place either on-campus or at a few select off-campus locations (such as an off-campus building run by the university or a recognized student organization). Notably, private residences are not included. ((My source for this is a source Perry used: Ohio State University’s “2013 Annual Campus Security Report & Annual Fire Safety Report.” (Pdf link.) The relevant info is found on page 46 as the pdf program counts pages.)) <\/p>\n

But according to the Journal of American College Health<\/em> study, 61-63% of sexual assaults took place off campus, most commonly in a private residence. Other studies have found similar numbers (for instance, this government study<\/a> found that 66% of rapes of college women took place off campus). So it’s likely that most sexual assaults in the “20%” statistic wouldn’t be included in George Will’s “98 reported rapes” figure, even if they were reported to police. ((We also know from news reports<\/a> that the Ohio campus cops sometimes declare reported rapes “unfounded.” I can’t tell if these “unfounded” reports are included in Will’s “98 reported rapes” number or not.))<\/p>\n

See also: Christie Wilcox at Discover Magazine<\/a> makes some similar points, and tries to recreate George Will’s math using less dubious numbers.<\/p>\n

\n

P.S. I focus on the numbers in this post because I think this aspect has been undercovered. But there are many, many, many other blogs out there that have criticized Will’s awful column along other lines. To scratch the surface: <\/p>\n

The conversation we need about our sexual culture – The Washington Post<\/a>
\nGeorge Will and Sexual Assault | Ordinary Times<\/a>
\nWillful Offense | Ordinary Times<\/a>
\nGeorge Will defies description, and a holder of a \u201ccoveted status\u201d responds<\/a>
\nI was raped, and I stayed silent about my "coveted status."<\/a>
\nA College Rape Survivor Responds To George Will’s "Coveted Status" Remarks | Blog | Media Matters for America<\/a>
\nGeorge Will\u2019s distasteful conclusions about sexual assault – The Washington Post<\/a>
\nGeorge Will: Being a victim of sexual assault is a \u201ccoveted status that confers privileges\u201d – Salon.com<\/a>
\nECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES: Being A Victim: A Coveted Status. Or So Writes George Will.<\/a>
\nHow Twitter voted #survivorprivilege off the island<\/a><\/p>\n

And – to be fair – a good post by Conor Friedersdorf<\/a> showing that many of the critiques of Will’s column have misread what Will was saying. But even read properly, Will’s column was pretty awful.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One way unserious people tire you out is by taking 15 minutes to write something unserious. It takes you four hours to undo their ignorance. —Ta-Nehisi Coates In an amazingly bad column about campus rape, George Will discusses some statistics … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-rape-intimate-violence-related-issues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18765"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18765\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19113,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18765\/revisions\/19113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}