{"id":5429,"date":"2008-11-11T19:23:33","date_gmt":"2008-11-12T02:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=5429"},"modified":"2008-11-11T19:23:33","modified_gmt":"2008-11-12T02:43:21","slug":"5429","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=5429","title":{"rendered":"Awesome"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nate Silver\u2019s current analysis of the Coleman-Franken recount<\/a>:<\/p>\n

In Minnesota\u2019s 2006 senate race, the audit detected just 53 discrepancies out of 94,073 ballots tested<\/a>, or an error rate of 0.056%. However, these are the cases of machine error only, whereas the state has a liberal voter intent law to cover cases of voter error as well during the process of an actual recount.<\/p>\n

From our Florida data set, we believe that machine error represents approximately one-third of the total number of correctable errors. That would imply that about 0.169% of ballots \u2014 roughly 1 ballot out of every 600 cast \u2014 will be reclassified in Minnesota. Given the total number of ballots cast in Minnesota\u2019s senate race, this translates to 4,835<\/span> ballots that will in fact be reclassified during the hand recount.<\/p>\n

Would this number be sufficient to provide Al Franken with a victory? It is very, very close. Using the Daily Kos estimate<\/a> that 52.5% of recounted ballots will go to Franken (after dropping votes for third parties), we estimate a net gain of 206 votes for him, which is almost exactly the margin by which he presently trails Norm Coleman.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Indeed, it\u2019s not almost exactly the number; it is the number<\/a><\/em>. If Silver\u2019s math is on, there\u2019s a chance that this recount could end with Coleman and Franken in a flat-footed tie. Which would mean Franken and Coleman would have to draw lots<\/a> to determine the winner. Undoubtedly, this would lead to local GOP operative\/paid blogger Michael Brodkorb<\/a> running a series of all-caps headlines complaining the flipped coin came from the Denver mint, which is in a blue state, and therefore it\u2019s totally unfair to Coleman.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nate Silver\u2019s current analysis of the Coleman-Franken recount: In Minnesota\u2019s 2006 senate race, the audit detected just 53 discrepancies out of 94,073 ballots tested, or an error rate of 0.056%. However, these are the cases of machine error only, whereas … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[92],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-whatever"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5429"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5429\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}