{"id":928,"date":"2004-06-24T10:58:44","date_gmt":"2004-06-24T18:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/archives\/2004\/06\/24\/tired\/"},"modified":"2004-06-24T10:58:44","modified_gmt":"2004-06-24T18:58:44","slug":"tired","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=928","title":{"rendered":"Tired!"},"content":{"rendered":"

At MarriageDebate.com, Eve Tushnet<\/a> asks:<\/p>\n

2) Everyone involved in the SSM debate who is heartily sick of hearing that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, please raise your hands. Expect to hear it repeated another couple thousand times in any discussion of federalist SSM “experiments,” if in fact such experiments are undertaken. <\/div>\n

I am! I’m sick, sick and tired! Why can’t they just embrace the Scandinavian data?[1]<\/sup>
\n

\"ChangeInNonMarital.gif\"<\/a>
(Click figure to see larger version.)<\/center>
\n
\n====== End Note
\n[1] The change in the non-marital birth ratio is the “key” parameter, according to Stanley Kurtz. The underlying data in this graph comes from newCronos<\/a>. You will need to go through a lengthy registration process to access the data. Not all countries provided data for all years. My graph includes data from countries supplying data from 1991 to 2002 (or 2001 when 2002 data are missing).<\/p>\n

Scandinavia does not appear to be doing badly compared to Europe as a whole.<\/p>\n

Calculating a correlation coefficient, I get a negative correlation between “being a Scandinavian Country” and the “nonmarital birth ratio”. That is legal same sex marriage correlates with smaller<\/i> increases in the nonmarital birth ratio. Banning same sex marriage correlates with larger<\/i> increases.<\/p>\n

That would seem to be the opposite of the effect suggested by Kurtz, who appears to believe he has proven SSM increases out of wedlock births. To “prove” this, he discusses the parameter in the Netherlands only, does not compare the value of this change in out of wedlock births to values in the rest of Europe, does not calculate a correlation coefficient at all, and seems to think the Netherlands has the highest rate of increase in out of wed lock births in Europe..<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At MarriageDebate.com, Eve Tushnet asks: 2) Everyone involved in the SSM debate who is heartily sick of hearing that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, please raise your hands. Expect to hear it repeated another couple thousand times in any … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[112,117],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-same-sex-marriage","category-ssm-the-scandinavian-question"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/928\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}