{"id":939,"date":"2004-06-29T15:33:25","date_gmt":"2004-06-29T23:33:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/archives\/2004\/06\/29\/dutch-decline\/"},"modified":"2004-06-29T15:33:25","modified_gmt":"2004-06-29T23:33:25","slug":"dutch-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=939","title":{"rendered":"Dutch Decline?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a recent article in the NRO and carried at MD.com<\/a>, Joshua Livestro<\/a> give us his spin on the effect of SSM on marriage in the Netherlands. Suggesting we re-read two articles by Dr. Stanley Kurtz<\/a>, Mr. Livestro provides a tiny new snippet of data. He tells us the marriage rate in the Netherlands has dropped, and suggests this is due to SSM.<\/p>\n

It is worth examining this tiny nugget of data, and seeing whether or not it seems to support Mr. Livestro’s claim. I must warn the reader: It does not.<\/p>\n

Let us begin with Mr. Livestro’s claim:<\/p>\n

As it turns out, 1989 – the year in which gay-marriage campaigners filed their first legal challenge to the existing marriage laws – is something of a tipping point in marriage statistics as well. Before that year, both the absolute number of marriages and the marriage rate (number of marriages per 1,000 people) were on an upward trend. Since 1989, however, that upward trend has turned into a downward slope, from more than 95,000 new marriages in the peak year 1990 to just over 82,000 – including 1500 gay marriages – in 2003. This equals a decline in the marriage rate per 1,000 people from 6.4 at its peak in 1990 (out of a population of under 15 million) to just 5.1 in 2003.<\/div>\n

Yes. The marriage rate declined in the Netherlands over the last decade. However, it is very odd to suggest this is somehow caused by the campaign for same sex marriage. The figure below shows the marriage rate in the Netherlands, the European average[1]<\/sup> and the average for Scandinavia.[2]<\/sup><\/p>\n

Figure: Click to see slightly larger. \"EuropeMarriages-thumb.gif\"
\n<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n

The marriage rate in the Netherlands closely matched the European average in 1991; it still does. Arguably, no country in Europe tracks the average more closely than the Netherlands. Many attribute the decrease in the European marriage rate, in part, to the aging population in Europe; it is plausible the aging Dutch population also has some effect. It boggles the mind that anyone would attribute the Dutch drop to legalized SSM.<\/p>\n

However, Mr. Livestro prefers to suggest this:<\/p>\n

And besides, maybe it’s just a coincidence that the birth of the gay-marriage movement in the Netherlands coincided with the start of the decline of the institution of marriage. <\/div>\n

On my graph, I noted two key events in the campaign for SSM in the Netherlands. At least to my eyes, the drop does not appear particularly connected to the legalization of either Registered Partnerships or Same Sex Marriage.[3]<\/sup><\/p>\n

I guess Mr. Livestro can attribute this decrease to whatever he likes; I think it’s a coincidence. The campaign for same sex marriage in the Netherlands occurred just as the marriage rate was dropping all over Europe. The mailman delivered my mail just as the garbage man picked up my garbage. Unless I see evidence to connect the two things, one doesn’t seem to have much to do with the other.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, let us examine an intriguing possibility that Mr. Livestro attributes to Andrew Sullivan. <\/p>\n

He claims that allowing gays to marry would not only not undermine marriage, it would also help strengthen an institution under threat of countercultural erosion. It would do so, he says, not just by boosting marriage statistics, but more important by presenting marriage as something to be desired, a special status worth fighting for.<\/div>\n

As those who have been read Stanley Kurtz’s various articles know, SSM, and “de facto” same sex marriage exist in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Interestingly, if we examine the average for Scandinavia, we see a slight rise<\/i> in the marriage rate in those countries. Since this rise is totally at variance with the erosion we seen in the rest of Europe, it supports Andrew Sullivan’s premise that the campaign for SSM could strengthen the institution under the threat of countercultural erosion.<\/p>\n

It’s rather interesting to go further. Examining the balance<\/i> of the evidence, we see mounting support for Andrew Sullivan’s view:<\/p>\n