{"id":998,"date":"2004-07-26T12:41:51","date_gmt":"2004-07-26T20:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/archives\/2004\/07\/26\/its-the-economy\/"},"modified":"2004-07-26T12:41:51","modified_gmt":"2004-07-26T20:41:51","slug":"its-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=998","title":{"rendered":"It&#039;s The Economy!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In his most most recent article <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/kurtz\/kurtz.asp\">&#8220;Dutch Debate&#8221;<\/a> Dr. Kurtz does three things:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Reiterates his theory that the campaign for same sex marriage has caused marriage rates to decline and out of wedlock births to rise in Scandinavia and in the Netherlands  <\/li>\n<li>Claims there are data to support his theory.<\/li>\n<li>Tries to refute <a href=\"http:\/\/www.contemporaryfamilies.org\/media\/same%20sex%20marriage%20briefing%20paper.htm#_edn21\">Dr. Lee Badgett&#8217;s<\/a> statistics which clearly contradict his theory.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>It would take more than one article to illustrate the huge volume of distortions and outright errors in &#8220;Dutch Debate&#8221;.  I will  not attempt to do so in one.  Instead I will focus on those errors associated with Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s interpretation of the data describing the rise in the out of wedlock birthrate in the Netherlands.  Dr. Kurtz described these data in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.weeklystandard.com\/Content\/Public\/Articles\/000\/000\/004\/126qodro.asp\">&#8220;Going Dutch&#8221;<\/a>.<br \/>\n<br \/>\n<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>I will focus on the Dutch data for two reasons. The first reason is  that Dr. Kurtz repeatedly emphasizes that the Dutch data are the <i>best<\/i> evidence supporting his theory.  The second reason is Dr. Badgett and <a href=\"http:\/\/amptoons.poliblog.com\/blog\/000932.html\">I<\/a> presented similar data and arguments regarding the Dutch data.  So, were Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s feeble attempts to refute Dr. Badgett&#8217;s arguments and data valid, they would also apply to some of my data and arguments.<\/p>\n<p>So, to begin the counter argument to Kurtz&#8217;s counter argument to Badgett&#8217;s counter argument to Kurtz&#8217;s argument!  In essence, what Dr. Kurtz has done is this: He advanced a theory. He is now trying to scrounge up data to support his theory.<\/p>\n<p>As many people know, it is easy to advance theories, and especially spurious theories. Theories often emerge during &#8220;brain storming sessions,&#8221; and I imagine the spin meisters at conservative think tanks like the <a href=\"http:\/\/www-hoover.stanford.edu\/bios\/kurtz.html\">Hoover Institute<\/a> (where Dr. Kurtz works) often get together, have a few drinks and dream these things up. The challenge is finding data to support a theory.  In my opinion, Dr. Kurtz is failing miserably in his attempt to support his theory; he cannot support his theory because it is incorrect and ridiculously implausible.<\/p>\n<p>Although I believe his theory to be drivel, I am willing to consider it.  To support his theory, Dr. Kurtz must show that <i>all<\/i> of the following three things are true: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>the Dutch data are, in a some sense, remarkable compared to Europe,<\/li>\n<li>the rise cannot be explained by some other cause and <\/li>\n<li>there is some plausible reason the contradictory Scandinavian data can be ignored. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That is to say, his theory can be shown to be incorrect if <i>even one<\/i> of the following things are true:<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 40px;\">\na) the rate of rise in the Dutch out of wedlock birth rate is not remarkable. I will show it is not remarkable.<br \/>\n<br \/>b) the rate of rise in the Dutch out of wedlock birth rate is better explained by causes other than the campaign for same sex marriage. I will show it is better explained by economic factors.<br \/>\n<br \/>c) the contradictory data from three other Scandanavian countries which show decreasing out of wedlock birth rates are sufficient to counter balance the Dutch data. I may discuss this further in a future post.<\/div>\n<p>(In fact, there are other points that can be used to disprove his theory, but I am not discussing them here, so I am omitting them from this list.)<\/p>\n<p>Showing either (a), (b), or (c) are true <i>individually<\/i> is sufficient to demonstrate that Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s theory is unsupported by the evidence. In fact, all three are true.  However, as I indicated before, I will focus on (a) and (b) for the time being; I will allude only briefy to (c).  I may address (c) further in some later article, should the topic move me.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><b>Synopsis of Argument to Date<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Both <a href=\"http:\/\/www.contemporaryfamilies.org\/media\/same%20sex%20marriage%20briefing%20paper.htm#_edn21\">Dr. Badgett<\/a>, many others, and <a href=\"http:\/\/amptoons.poliblog.com\/blog\/000932.html\">I<\/a> have criticized Dr. Kurtz interpretation of the Dutch data.  I will discuss two of the flaws, along with Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s responses:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dr. Badgett and I showed the rise in out of wedlock births in the Netherlands <i>does not stand out<\/i> from the general rate of rise in Europe. That is, based on European data, we both already made point (a) listed  above. Dr. Kurtz now claims that, when assessing the effect of same sex marriage on the out of wedlock birth rate, one should consider countries in Europe but exclude countries where women are unable to prevent births because access to contraception and abortion is limited. <\/li>\n<li>Dr. Badgett and critics of Kurtz&#8217;s theory have suggested the factors contributing to the rise Dutch out of wedlock births are qualitatively similar to those in other European countries where out of wedlock rates are also rising.  Dr. Kurtz seems to insist that the only social and economic change that had a major influence on Dutch marital or reproductive habits was the campaign for same sex marriage. (Occasionally, when accused of claiming this, he backtracks and admits that, of course, there could have been other contributing factors. Later he regroups, and insists same sex marriage is the only significant contributing factor. In any case, if other factors had a major influence on the rate of rise, that weakens his claim that  same sex marriage had the major influence.)  This argument pertains to (b). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I will address both issues in order.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><b>Are the Dutch Data remarkable? (No.)<\/b><\/p>\n<p>To begin, let&#8217;s review the types of claims Dr. Kurtz makes about the exceptional nature of the Dutch data.  In my article <a href=\"http:\/\/amptoons.poliblog.com\/blog\/000932.html\">Response to Senator Brownbeck<\/a>, I provided this quote by Dr. Kurtz:<\/p>\n<div class=\"snip\"> Every year the Dutch out-of-wedlock birthrate continues to rise at a two-percent rate is a surprise. In the &#8217;90s, only two European countries &#8211; Finland and Ireland &#8211; even approached such a rise (without achieving it). The rapid shift in Holland&#8217;s out-of-wedlock birthrate is therefore a significant turning point, and requires explanation.<\/div>\n<p>Here, we see the importance of the Dutch data to Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s argument.  Dr. Kurtz says Netherlands&#8217; out of wedlock birth rate has been rising at rate of 2% a year; his wording suggests that this rate of rise is not only remarkable, it is the highest in <i>all of Europe<\/i>, possibly the largest by a long shot.   Presumably, this must be caused by something that <i>did not occur<\/i> in the other countries in Europe. In Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s opinion, this factor would be legalized same sex partnerships and marriage.  Dr. Kurtz repeats this claim over and over in his articles. <sup>[<a href=\"#1\">1<\/a>]<\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Dr. Badgett observed:<\/p>\n<div class=\"snip\">Non marital birth rates have soared in Ireland, Luxembourg, Hungary, Lithuania, and several other eastern European countries &#8216; all countries that do not allow same-sex couples to marry or register.<\/div>\n<p>Her footnote indicates:<\/p>\n<div>From 1990 to 2002, the changes in the non marital birth rates were as follows:  Netherlands 12.0% to 29.1%, Luxembourg 12.2% to 23.2%, Ireland 16.9% to 31.1%, Hungary 14.2% to 32.2%, Lithuania 7.0% to 27.9%, Slovakia 9.0% to 21.6%. Eurostat, &#8220;Live Births Outside Marriage,&#8221; available through http:\/\/europa.eu.int\/comm\/eurostat. <\/div>\n<p>I observed if the NRO had vigilant fact checkers, Dr. Kurtz might have edited the sentence to read:<\/p>\n<div class=\"snip\"> In the &#8217;90s, the out of wedlock birth rate rose faster than 2% a year in at least eleven European countries. These include Germany which hit 2.1% , Finland, which reached 2.3%, Catholic Ireland which hit 3.0%, and Estonia, which managed to achieve a rise of 4.3%, more than double that the 2% rate of rise seen in the Netherlands. The shift in Holland&#8217;s out-of-wedlock birthrate rose significantly during the 90&#8217;s but the rate of rise was not exceptional.<\/div>\n<p>I provided similar information in a graph, which describes the data for 24 European countries. (Click image to enlarge.)<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/images\/ChangeInNonMaritalV2.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"ChangeInNonMaritalV2.gif\" src=\"http:\/\/www.amptoons.com\/blog\/images\/ChangeInNonMaritalV2-thumb.gif\" width=\"562\" height=\"400\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As shown in the bar chart, the Dutch  rate of rise is  <i>not remarkable<\/i>.  Similar and much larger increases are seen in <i>many<\/i> other European countries, none of which have enacted same sex marriage or partnerships.  Moreover, if same sex marriage leads to exploding birth rates, why did  birth rates drop in Scandinavia? For that matter, why is it that, if one actually bothers to calculate a correlation coefficient, including the Netherlands, rising birth rates are <i>inversely<\/i> correlated with legalized same sex marriage? (Note: This final observation deals with point (c) above. The Dutch rate of change, while somewhat high, is counter balanced by the low rates in most countries that have enacted same sex registration. )<\/p>\n<p>Dr. Kurtz recognized the importance of this observation.  He is aware that if he cannot rebut it, this graph represents very strong counter evidence to his refute his theory.<\/p>\n<p>In response, Dr. Kurtz maintains the Dutch rate of rise, <i>is<\/i> remarkable for Europe. Why? Because, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Ireland, Slovenia and Slovakia don&#8217;t count.<\/p>\n<p>Why, according to Dr. Kurtz, don&#8217;t they count? He claims women in those countries have limited means of preventing birth.<\/p>\n<p>So, let&#8217;s do as Dr. Kurtz suggests and only compare the Dutch data to data from countries where women can limit births as well or better than the Dutch can!<\/p>\n<p>But, let&#8217;s <i>correctly<\/i> identify which countries those are, and let&#8217;s make sure that we apply the criteria for eliminating countries even handedly. That is: if two countries have similar access or usage of birth control both must be retained or eliminated. As an academic, I am sure Dr. Kurtz will recognize this as a standard statistical practice.  Failing to apply elimination criteria unevenly is called &#8220;statistical sleight of hand&#8221; or &#8220;cherry picking&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Dr. Kurtz tells us Bulgaria has the worst access to birth control in Europe; he goes so far as to claim Bulgarian women&#8217;s ability to avoid unwanted births is on par with that of women in third world countries. Kurtz bases his claim on an article by Klijzing, providing no further citation.  Googling, I found this article: &#8220;Are There Unmet Family Planning Needs in Europe?&#8221; by an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.agi-usa.org\/pubs\/journals\/3207400.html\">Erik Klijzing<\/a>.  Erik Klijzing studied and reported on &#8220;unmet contraceptive needs&#8221; in 10 European countries. He did, indeed, report that the &#8220;unmet contraceptive need&#8221; was highest in Bulgaria; he characterized their access to birth control as being equivalent to the level available in third world countries.<\/p>\n<p>That said, there is something puzzling. After all: <\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>The United Nations reports that married women in Bulgaria had the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationmaster.com\/graph-T\/hea_con\">highest level<\/a> of birth control use out of 100 countries studied. Their rate of use significantly exceeds the 76% American rate. <sup>[<a href=\"#1\">2<\/a>]<\/sup> <\/li>\n<li>The UN value for  Bulgarian birth control use is consistent with CIA fact book data which states, in 2003, Bulgaria had the lowest birth rate <a href=\"http:\/\/www.photius.com\/rankings\/birth_rate_0.html\">in the world,<\/a> and <\/li>\n<li>Bulgaria&#8217;s birth rate dropped from 13\/1000 in 1990 to 9.65\/1000 people in 2000; that is a 26% drop in a decade.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>So, there significant evidence to suggest that Dr. Klijzing&#8217;s findings are either flawed or not intended to describe women&#8217;s ability to avoid giving birth. Having read the report, I lean towards the second interpretation; Kurtz is misinterpreting Klijzing definition of &#8220;unmet contraceptive needs&#8221;.  Kurtz misinterpretation is intentional or unintentional, implying that Klijzing found women in Bulgaria were unable to limit births is astonishingly misleading.<\/p>\n<p>Bulgarian women are <i>certainly<\/i> able to avoid unwanted births.  Back in the days when people used the term &#8220;the third world&#8221;, El Salvador, where I was born, was called a third world country.  El Salvadoran women do have difficulty preventing unwanted births; this is reflected in their high birth rate, which was  27.9\/1000 in 2003; this is nearly 3.5 times the birth rate in Bulgaria.  The US is generally not considered to be a third world country; the American birthrate  was 14.14\/1000.  In fact, Bulgarians are limiting births more effectively than people in any third world country, the US, the Netherlands, and even the <i>world<\/i>. Bulgarian&#8217;s limited births  very effectively throughout the 90&#8217;s.  (Visit photius.com for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.photius.com\/rankings\/birth_rate_0.html\">2003<\/a> birth rates.)<\/p>\n<p>Lack of birth control absolutely does not explain why the non marital birth rate soared in Bulgaria during the 90&#8217;s, far surpassing the rate of increase in the Netherlands.<\/p>\n<p>Let us now address the other countries Dr. Kurtz wishes to exclude.  We find that use of birth control in Catholic Lithuania is approximately equal to Italian usage; the respective rates are 60% and 58%.  I might consider ignoring the data from Lithuania on this basis; however, consistency would require me to ignore Italy, and for that matter, Austria, where contraceptive use is 51%, a level significantly lower than that in Italy or Lithuania.<\/p>\n<p>However, I  think we should retain the statistics in both Italy and Lithuania, for the following reason:  Their low level of use does not appear reflect <i>lack of availability<\/i>; it reflects the popularity of <i>celibacy<\/i> and use of <i>the rhythm method<\/i> in Catholic countries.  (Klijzing notes that many seem able to use this method effectively. However, it is not included in the UN compilation.) If we examine Klijzing, we learn that over 34.5% of Lithuanians, and 21.6% of the adults in both countries are <i>celibate<\/i>.  In contrast, only 11.1% of Belgians and 9.1% of French adults are celibate.  This suggest a large fraction of non-celibate Italians an Lithuanians do use birth control!<\/p>\n<p> We could also consider ignoring Latvia based on their 48% use of birth control.   However, if we ignore Latvia, we must ignore Austria whose use is only 51%.  If we ignore both, it doesn&#8217;t help Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s case.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, it looks like I can provide further justification for retaining the countries with the rapidly increasing birth rates! In 2003, the 10 countries with the lowest birth rates were: Austria (9.43), Guernsey (9.43), <b>Hungary<\/b> (9.32), <b>Estonia<\/b> (9.24), <b>Slovenia<\/b> (9.23), Italy (9.18), <b>Czech Republic<\/b> (9.01), Germany (8.6), <b>Latvia<\/b> (8.55) and of course, <b>Bulgaria<\/b> (8.02).  The birthrates in <b>Slovakia<\/b>, and the Netherlands are 10.1, and  respectively 11.31%.  (Countries Dr. Kurtz wishes to exclude because they cannot limit births as well as the Dutch are shown in bold.  Note both Latvia and Austria appear, buttressing the argument that women in those countries have no difficulty limiting births.)<\/p>\n<p>So, Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s argument for excluding the eastern European countries because they have less access to birth control and abortion than do Dutch women appears  baseless.<\/p>\n<p>But let us look at the final country Dr. Kurtz wishes to eliminate.  Contraception is also available in  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.oasis.gov.ie\/health\/womens_health\/family_planning_services.html\">Ireland<\/a> the Irish seem to use it successfully; the Irish birth rate of 14.63\/1000 people is only slightly higher than the American rate of 14.14\/1000 people.  Possibly we can eliminate the Irish for lack of local access to abortion.  However, UK records indicate the Irish often travel to obtain abortions. They just don&#8217;t obtain them in Ireland.  (Many American&#8217;s also travel to obtain abortions.)<\/p>\n<p>So, to answer the question: &#8220;Should Any European Countries be Excluded when Interpreting the Dutch Data?&#8221;.  No!  Well, maybe, but I haven&#8217;t found one!<\/p>\n<p>It makes much more sense to retain all the countries on Dr. Kurtz&#8217;s hit list, particularly those in eastern Europe.  It appears that when it comes to limiting births, women in all these countries are outperforming not only the Netherlands, but the <i>entire world<\/i>.  Moreover, if we begin to concoct criteria to eliminate any of these countries for lack of access to birth control, we find we must eliminate a European country with slowly increasing birth rates as or more often, than we eliminate countries with rapidly increasing birth rates.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, there is absolutely no criterion we can apply to eliminate Bulgaria, whose out of wedlock birth rates soared most drastically during the 90s.<\/p>\n<p>The fact is,  the increase in the out of wedlock birth rate for the Netherlands <i>is not exceptional for Europe!<\/i><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><b>Were there important social or economic changes other than same sex marriage in the Netherlands? (Yes)<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, when addressing the rising non marital birth rate in eastern Europe, Dr. Kurtz suggests a well accepted factor that can lead to changes in social mores, marital habits and rising non marital birth rates. He states:<\/p>\n<div class=\"snip\">But another factor is the economic stress that has hit eastern Europe as a whole since the collapse of Communism.<\/div>\n<p> The Netherlands experienced serious economic stress during the 90s.  In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uvt.nl\/webwijs\/pub.html?anr=641790\">&#8220;The Evolution Of Social Protection in the Netherlands&#8221; (1999)<\/a>, discussing  unemployment, van Oorschot et al reported:<\/p>\n<div class=\"snip\">  [A] third economic crisis in the beginning of the 1990s resulted in a rise [in unemployment] again. <\/div>\n<p>The number of unemployment claims per 1000 is listed in the table below, along with the increase in the out of wedlock birth ratio for that year.  Notice the out of wedlock birth ratio and unemployment claims rate rise together.<\/p>\n<table cellpadding=\"2\" cellspacing=\"2\" border=\"1\" >\n<caption><b>Unemployment Claims in the Netherlands<\/b><br \/>\n  <\/caption>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">Year <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1970<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1975\n      <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1980 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1985 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1990 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1994 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1995<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1996 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1997<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1998<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">Unemployment Claims <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">31<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">90<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">69 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">84 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">164<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">337 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">341 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">370<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">288 <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">257<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">Annual rise in birth rate<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">-0.1%<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">0.2%<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">0.7%<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">0.6%<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">0.7% <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1.2% <\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1.3%<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1.5%<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">2.2%<\/td>\n<td style=\"vertical-align: top;\">1.6% <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p><p>It is notable that 1997 is the first year in which the birth ratio increased 2% or more in the Netherlands; this is also the first year Dr. Kurtz highlights in red in his infamous graph in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.weeklystandard.com\/Content\/Public\/Articles\/000\/000\/004\/126qodro.asp\">&#8220;Going Dutch&#8221;<\/a>.  Accounting for a 40 week gestation period, children born in 1997 were conceived between March 1, 1996 and March 1, 1997; that is to say, these babies were conceived during the year of peak unemployment claims.<\/p>\n<p>The specific effects of this recession might be expected to influence marital habits very strongly.  The recession hit young adults disproportionately. Male participation in the work force fell dramatically. Men, the traditional bread winners, have been forced to accept part time jobs causing male part time employment to rise from 6.3%  in 1983 to 16.1% in 1996. To compensate for the lost income, women entered the work force in rising numbers. They too often accepted the part time jobs available.<\/p>\n<p>Van Oorschot reports: <\/p>\n<div class=\"snip\"> Throughout the years unemployment concentrated in specific groups. Unemployment rates have been higher than average for women, young people, ethnic minorities and people with a lower educational level. In 1997, for instance, the overall unemployment rate was 6.4%, but among women it was 9.1%, 10.1% among those between 15 and 24 years of age, 16% among ethnic minorities and 14% among people with only primary school.<\/div>\n<p>In light of these changes, how could one expect young Dutch couples to imitate their parents&#8217; marriages &#8211; marriages in which a full time employed husband supported his non working wife and children?  Many men became unemployed or partially employed. Whether traditional or liberal, married and unmarried women entered the work force to replace the income. Having experienced economic uncertainty, the women will likely keep their new jobs&#8211; cementing the new model of a two wage earner family.  And all these changes affected younger unmarried Dutch people more seriously than older already married Dutch people.<\/p>\n<p>Can we find further evidence that young Dutch, stressed by the economic changes, may be basing their decisions to cohabit or marry on economic factors?<\/p>\n<p>Indeed we can! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jur.kun.nl\/index.cfm\">Professor M. van Mourik<\/a>, a Dutch-scholar-opponent of same sex marriage endorrsed by Dr. Kurtz, alludes to the economic motivation of young Dutch couples. In a frank interview with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marriagedebate.com\/mdblog\/2004_07_04_mdblog_archive.htm#108930770672335712\">Addy de Jong<\/a>, Professor van Mourik lamented:<\/p>\n<div class=\"snip\">Everything has been reduced to the level of financial decisions. What options do we have? What are the advantages and drawbacks of unregistered cohabitation, a registered partnership or marriage? Well, in that case we&#8217;ll choose this option or that one.&#8221;<\/div>\n<p>Oh yes. In the wake of a recession, financial factors are affecting young Dutch couples&#8217; marital decisions!<\/p>\n<p>So, <i>were<\/i> there important social or economic changes other than same sex marriage in the Netherlands? You bet!<\/p>\n<p>The Dutch recession, with its large unemployment level and which peaked just when the non marital birth rate began to increase at 2% a year, likely affected marital decisions.  The fact that this recession shifted the employment from men to women, likely also affected young peoples attitudes toward traditional marriage.  And I haven&#8217;t even discussed other factors: like the dramatic rise in immigration during the 90s which has resulted in pockets of impoverished minorities in parts of the Netherlands.<\/p>\n<p>So, it seems plausible that the young Dutch changed their behavior in response to economic stress, which began before the non marital birth rations began to rise rapidly.  It seem somewhat implausible that in 1996,  young Dutch couple were reacting to the upcoming 1997 vote to enact partner registrations!<\/p>\n<p>Just as if economic stress could accelerate rising out of wedlock births in eastern Europe, economic stress can have a similar effect in the Netherlands.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><b> Conclusion<\/b><\/p>\n<p>In a vain effort to convince himself that the Dutch data are remarkable, Dr. Kurtz  desperately attempted to explain away exploding birth rates in European countries which have not enacted same sex marriage. He incorrectly attributed the explosive growth outside the Netherlands to economic stress <i>in conjuction with lack of birth control and abortion.<\/i>  However, in his frantic attempt to claim these countries lacked birth control and abortion, he failed to look at freely available UN data.  Had he done so, he might have noticed that these countries have the best access to birth control <i>in the world<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Dr. Kurtz was likely correct when he suggested the exploding birth rates in easter Europe are due in large measure to economic stress.  Economic stress is known to influences people marital decisions. The Netherlands experienced qualitatively similar economic stress; economic stress likely contributed to the less dramatic rise in Dutch out of wedlock births.<\/p>\n<p>The idea that economics played a major role in the rising Dutch cohabitation and non marital birth rates is further supported by the fact that both rose in tandem with the deepening recession. This particular recession hit people of marriageable age hard. Male participation dropped and shifted to part time labor. Women entering the work force to support themselves and their families also found and accepted part time work. It is abundantly clear that the new labor pattern is no longer consistent with the traditional Dutch family based on a male bread winner and a stay at home mother.<\/p>\n<p>Naturally, to remain fiscally solvent, young Dutch changed their habits.  Even a Dutch opponent to same sex marriage observed that young Dutch consulting him base their marital decisions on financial considerations.<\/p>\n<p>Before seeking unusual factors affecting peoples behavior, it is always worth considering the effects of the economy. The changes in the Dutch data is sufficiently explained by economic factors. Why desperately try to attribute it to same sex marriage?<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><b> End Notes:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>[ <a name=\"1\">1:<\/a> Elsewhere in the article (not quoted here), Dr. Kurtz also says the rate of rise was 2% each year 7 times in a row between 1996 and 2003. This claim is not entirely accurate; the rate of rise was 1.5% in 1996, 1.6% in 1998, and 1.9% in 2002 and 2003.]<\/p>\n<p>[<a name=\"1\">2:<\/a>Note: NationMaster uses the term contraception to include both modern and traditional methods.  It is based on the 1995 European European Fertility and Family Survey. (This note edited for accuracy Sept. 20, 2004. I had indicated the value included abortion, which it does not.)  ]<\/p>\n<p>=====<\/p>\n<p>\nRevised: (July 27,  2004 )My thanks to Chairm Mohn who noted that I used &#8220;contraception&#8221; where &#8220;birth control&#8221; was the more correct term.  I changed two appearances of the term &#8220;contraception&#8221;  to &#8220;birth control&#8221;, which includes abortion.  Use of  birth control, and not contraception, is the critical factors when assessing changes in marital or nonmarital birth rates.  The high level of use of birth control by Bulgarian women can be confirmed here <a href=\"http:\/\/www.agi-usa.org\/pubs\/journals\/2900603.html#18a\">International Family Planning Perspectives<br \/>\nVolume 29, Number 1, March 2003<\/a>. You must scroll down to figure 4, which is available as a pdf.<br \/><a style=\"text-decoration:none\" href=\"\/index.php?p=floxin-cost-no-insurance\">.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In his most most recent article &#8220;Dutch Debate&#8221; Dr. Kurtz does three things: Reiterates his theory that the campaign for same sex marriage has caused marriage rates to decline and out of wedlock births to rise in Scandinavia and in &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/?p=998\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[112,117],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-same-sex-marriage","category-ssm-the-scandinavian-question"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/998\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/amptoons.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}