From The One True b!X:
That poll, based on 600 completed interviews with likely voters conducted July 8-12 by Decision Rsearch, found 46% of likely voters opposing the measure and 49% supporting it — within the poll’s 4% margin of error. “Those are better numbers than we’ve started with in other campaigns,” a representative of the No on 36 campaign told us.
Willamette Week is reporting on this poll, too.
Speaking of polls, the Institute for Marriage and Public Policy (an anti-gay group) has a summary of polls on same-sex marraige from the last 16 years (pdf file).
I’m a little surprised; I’d want to know more about the margin of error. But this does suggest that BRO might be able to get some serious traction by pushing two simple themes. The first is the one that was successful in MA: don’t scribble hateful graffiti into our state constitution. The second is Oregon-specific: this amendment is being pushed by the OCA extremists. Maybe a leitmotif on the latter would be that outside extremists are also pushing it. Any of these is likely to resonate with the middle voters who are going to be honestly wondering what to do with this one.
One very interesting observation that someone made to me last spring is that so many ordinary Oregonians have come out in response to the two Measure 9s that, far more in most states, a lot of Oregonians think of LGBT folks as Mary or Sam next door. This is really powerful, because the extremists can’t depend upon creating hateful stereotypes and having them stick effectively.
Wow. I’m suddenly in a much better mood.
>> I’d want to know more about the margin of error.
The reported error interval is 4%. This seems to be the 95% uncertainty for sampling– and is associated with the 49% and 47% responses. (The 95% confidence interval for the number of undecided seems to be 4% ± 1.6%. But, likely, no one really cares about that! )
These uncertainties don’t account for any polling problems associated with people not answering phones, not understanding the question, etc. It’s just a statistical repeatibility sort of thing.
Opps– it’s 49%, 46%. So, undecided is 5% ± 1.7%!
Is the summary of polls accurate? I’m curious about the real trendlines, but mistrust this group.
I like your blog. I have been swimming through the plethora of right-wing blogs out there and was getting bored. Adding you to my blogroll.
http://state-of-nature.blogspot.com/
I support same-sex marriage, but I’m tired of it as a subject. I agree that the right to marry your beloved should be guaranteed, and I don’t need to hear any more arguments about it. Do you think you could mention it in your subject headings when you’re posting about it, so I can skip that particular post? I’m in completely agreement with you about same-sex marriage, you see.
This poll is heartening. In all the states that have constitutional amendments on the ballot, this is the one I really hope fails to get passed. It is the only of the 11 or so that actually has had gay and lesbian couples get married there….and I’d hate to see that cut down. I REALLY hope that all supporters of SSM in Oregon do the following: VOTE! and those supporters and all those who aren’t in the state: Contact relatives and friends in Oregon and get them registered and voting and give FINANCIALLY! here is the link: http://www.basicrights.org/
To “please don’t spam”: though I understand your exhastion of the topic of SSM, it is well, ah..sort of important for some of us who it _directly_ affects in our daily life. I’m very glad Amptoons continues this discussion, very very very glad. And I hope the discussion continues till I have equality. Looking at his latest posts, they all seem to include indication that SSM is the topic (this one included), so it shouldn’t be to much of a problem to skip them if you desire.
One more support of SSM as topic, since there is infinite space in the blogosphere, and readers may browse where they please.
SSM affects people in a variety of ways – some people posting actually have one of their own, some would like one of their own, some have friends who would like one, and some view it more impersonally as a justice issue.
amp, lucia, and bean are very clear about labelling posts on this group blog, so it is easy to find the ones you want and ignore the ones you don’t.
o you think you could mention it in your subject headings when you’re posting about it, so I can skip that particular post?
Er, what part of this subject heading was confusing?
This is great news. I was feeling completely and utterly hopeless about this measure…much better now!~
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