The other side’s primaries are so much fun. From my perspective, it’s all entertainment, no skin in the game.
I had a long argument with a couple of my housemates about the GOP primary and the upcoming presidential election. My prediction: Mitt Romney will win the primary, and then beat Obama in the general election.
Here’s what I was thinking:
1) GOP primary voters don’t really love any of their options with a passion, and some Republicans (like some liberals) have issues with Mormons. But they really, really hate Barack Obama — “From hell’s heart, I stab at thee. For hate’s sake, I spit my last breath at thee.”1 That sort of hate.
So my prediction is that in the end, they’ll settle on Romney.2 He’s not the one they want, but he is the one that can (maybe) give them the victory they want.
Although Cain is increasingly looking like a long-shot possibility, and I have to admit, this commercial is strangely compelling. Cain is likable. Unfortunately, I just don’t see anything else about him that would remotely make him a good president. But if he shocks everyone and becomes the nominee, well, from my perspective as a consumer of politics as entertainment, I’d be happy.
Perry, meanwhile, seemed to be self-destructing even last week, and now he’s running scared from the prospect of Republican debates. I think even Republicans who like Perry are secretly doubting he’d fare well against Obama in a debate.
2) Then comes the general election (which won’t be so much fun for me). Some general points:
2a) Of Americans who don’t bother to vote, the vast majority already know who they’re going to vote for in November: They’re definitely voting for Obama, or they’re definitely voting for whoever the Republican is. Nearly all the votes are already settled.
2b) Americans who vote but are genuinely undecided are high-information, well-informed intellectuals carefully weighing the man this sentence is absolute bullshit, isn’t it? Undecided voters, by and large, don’t know anything and don’t want to know anything. They’ll mostly wake up and vote based on how good they’re feeling that morning. Which is why economic conditions (regardless of cause) are so important to winning elections, and why I predict that Obama will lose, lose, lose.
2c) It won’t help Obama that his voters are simply less enthused. And if the Republican is Romney… well, sure, Democrats dislike Romney, but we don’t HATE him yet. Not like the way Kahn hated Kirk. (If the Republicans do nominate Rick Perry, that would do wonders for Democratic enthusiasm.)
2d) Romney is bland but competent. If he’s the candidate, he’ll be well-advised, hard-working and cautious.3 Given Obama’s weaknesses — an incumbent president running in a staggering economy is like a marathon runner carrying a sofa — that’ll be enough. On the other hand, if one of the other folks is the nominee, who knows?
So that’s why I’m predicting that our next president — alas — is Mitt Romney. Thoughts? Speculations? Rambles? Conspiracy theories? Recipes for cupcakes shaped like Herman Cain’s head? Post ’em here.
At least Romney isn’t a guaranteed unmitigated disaster for the country. Almost all of the other GOP candidates are.
I have no idea who survives the GOP primary pillow fight. It’s way too early to tell. Remember when Kerry had no chance in December of aught-three? Yeah.
We’re doomed.
What we need is a Ross Perot to siphon the undecideds, then leave the main contest to a point-shaving battle. I miss the days when a candidate could become president with less than 50% of the vote — as handed in by barely more than 50% of the eligible voting public.
The other day I saw a, um, journalist (FLOABW) say that the candidate with the most links on Facebook wins — possibly the dumbest thing I had heard on telenews in, oh, 24 hours.
On the economy, the economy this far out has no demonstrated predictive power, and what matters more is the future shape of the current maybe-not-a-double-dip. If the economy in October next year is improving relative to March of that year, the predictive models would support an Obama win, if November is doing badly relative to March, that would predict an Obama loss. October of the preceding year relative to anything does not have predictive value, and the absolute state of the economy does not have predictive value.
I think Romney has a fair to middling chance against Obama. I don’t believe elections are decided by the small number of undecided reliable voters. I believe elections are more often decided by the larger numbers of decided unreliable voters. There are large numbers of people who know they’ll vote for the Republican if they find themselves filling out a ballot next year, but they can’t say for sure if they’ll vote. Likewise for Obama voters. The question is whether Romney will be able to mobilize the right wing ministers and activists. He doesn’t need their vote. He needs their activism. If the Evangelical churches decide they can’t stomach going all out for a Mormon, Romney loses. If the Tea Party activists decide they can’t go all out for the man who suggested Romney Care and its individual mandate as a model for the nation, Romney loses.
Likewise, Obama has his problems with his activists. Overruling the EPA and shelving the ozone standards was a pretty strong last straw for me, and I know a lot of other people have had their own last straws with Obama. I’m still voting for him, but I don’t expect to do much campaigning for him (I didn’t last time either, so no change).
I can see pretty much any outcome, between total Republican control of the government and total Democratic control, happening next year. The Dems could gain the House and lose the presidency and the senate and I wouldn’t be surprised. I don’t think the Dems could lose the presidency and hold the senate. I think that one is off the table.
I don’t think any of the current crop besides Romney can win the presidency, although I could imagine not-Romney winning the nomination, and I think there are not-Romneys (who aren’t currently running) who could win if the Republicans managed a brokered convention.