UMASS economist M. V. Badgett has released a “discussion paper” examining the evidence from Scandinavia and the Netherlands – available in both html and pdf formats. You can also read a short summary of the paper’s conclusions here.
In essence, the evidence is consistant with the common-sense idea that same-sex marriage has no impact on straight marriage. The vast majority of heterosexuals deciding whether or not to marry, aren’t basing their decision on if same-sexers have legal recognition of their relationships.
The paper also makes this point, about how heterosexual marraiges are even less likely to be affected in the US:
The lack of support alternatives plus the tangible benefits of marriage all lead to one conclusion: if and when same-sex couples are allowed to marry, heterosexual couples will continue to marry in the United States.
Incidently, folks interested in the statistics and social-science side of the SSM debate should check out Professor Badgett’s site, which is full of interesting papers..
It’s always nice when thorough academic research happens to agree with data you can find on the web!
I am pretty amused by Kurtz’s accusation that Badgett’s case is built on statistical sleight of hand.
Uhmmm.. isn’t Kurtz decision to focus on one country (the Netherlands), slight of hand? And couldn’t one make an some sort of negative statement about Kurtz’s claim that no other European country’s illegitimacy ratio rose at a rate greater than 2% a year during the 90s?
oppps.. to find Kurtz quote: http://www.nationalreview.com/kurtz/kurtz200405250927.asp
Heh. It’s also nice when thorough academic research happens to agree with plain ol’ common sense.