Oh, There’s Nothin’ Half-Way About the Iowa Way to Rank You When We Rank You Which We May Not Do At All

So it’s Iowa Caucus Eve! Is everyone ready? Are the children all nestled all snug in their beds, while visions of Santorum dance in their heads? Have folks refused to leave a peppermint stick for ol’ St. Ron, as simply giving someone a peppermint stick would be redistributive? Are people hoping for an animatronic Romney under the Iowa Tree, or will the Gingrinch steal the caucuses? It’s the last power rankings before Iowa. Hooray!

1. Fmr. Mass. Gov. Willard Mitt Romney (LR: 2)

Romney has edged into the top slot thanks to default, those two sweetest words in the English language. He has done this not so much by growing his support — he hasn’t — but because every other person running against him has collapsed. He appears locked in for a top-three finish in Iowa with a good chance at the top slot; if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be in great shape.

That doesn’t mean that it’s clear sailing for Mittens, however. With Rick Santorum, of all people, now in a statistical dead heat for first in Iowa, and Ron Paul in command of a crazed army of Paulbots, there’s a chance Romney could slip to third. If that happens, he could suddenly find himself on the other end of a flurry of “why can’t Mitt close the deal” stories, which could either catapult another challenger into the lead, or convince one of the undeclared White Knights (Jeb? Sarah? Bobby?) to enter the race.

The good news for Romney is that Santorum is currently the most likely candidate to beat him in Iowa, and Santorum is also the least likely candidate to break out nationally; still, Mitt really needs to win, or at least finish second to Paul, to quiet the doubters. Even then, it appears likely that Romney will underperform his 2008 showing in Iowa; he may get the nomination, but there’s no question that he’s loathed by rank-and-file Republicans. It’s going to be awfully hard for him to hold onto his right flank if he does get the nomination.

But at the moment, he is the odds-on favorite to win. The right is fragmented, and Santorum likely lacks the resources to parlay a win into a national campaign the way, say, Perry or Gingrich could. Things are shaping up well for Mitt. But given the way this race has gone so far, that means Mitt’s collapse could be right around the corner.

2. Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Penn. (LR: 6)

Santorum spurts up to number two, and nobody’s more surprised than me. When last we played this game, I had declared Santorum done, and why wouldn’t I have? Newt Gingrich was riding the wave of support, and it was December. Surely there wasn’t enough time for Newt to collapse, and give room for the only plausible candidate left who hadn’t gotten a shot at the spotlight.

Well, Newt collapsed, thanks to an epic barrage of attack ads by Romney’s rich buddies.  And then Paul briefly surged, but it turned out he was not only a racist (which is not a deal-breaker for the GOP), but was actually open about it (which is) — plus he didn’t want to nuke Tehran. Bachmann had been tried and found wanting, Perry was dumber than a brick, and Santorum…well, he was the only one left who hadn’t collapsed.

And so it’s the frothy mixture’s turn. Color me skeptical. Santorum is nobody’s first choice; he’s a place-holder. A convenient protest vote against Mittens.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that he won’t make a splash tomorrow. He could conceivably win the Iowa caucuses, and if he does, who knows? It could actually turn Santorum into the anti-Mitt, and certainly, he has the anti-gay, anti-woman bona fides to run with it. If not, it could at least prove that there’s an anti-Mitt group out there, and give renewed hope to candidates with actual national organizations and money to continue on even if Mitt wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

3. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas (LR: 3)

Paul had his own mini-surge, and briefly led in Iowa. This had the salient effect of causing the media to actually cover Ron Paul. Hilarity ensued. It turns out that the media was doing Paul a huge favor by not covering him; covering him required noting that he’d published ten years’ worth of racist, sexist, and anti-gay newsletters that played to the Patriot movement in the time leading up to the Oklahoma City bombing.

Paul’s explanation — that he’d published the newsletters but had never read them — didn’t really work out so well. Instead of killing the matter, it changed the question from whether Paul was racist or not to whether Paul was racist or incompetent. (Answer: both.)

Did this kill him? Not exactly. Certainly, there were plenty of socially awkward 20-year-old white men who would back him no matter what. And more than a few (universally white, universally male) “progressive” pundits who’d tout Paul as an answer to the evil Barack Obama (pay no attention to Paul’s views on women’s rights, civil rights, medicare, social security, education, welfare, or anything else). But Paul’s words — whether his or ghost-written — prevented him from growing his support beyond his committed supporters.

This doesn’t mean that Paul’s Ronulan army won’t help him finish in the top three. I think he will; heck, he could still win the thing. But it does mean that he’s back to being what he always is — the angry guy muttering in the corner. He’ll finish third lots of places. He won’t get the nomination. Period. The only interesting thing to see is whether he ultimately breaks ranks and runs as a Libertarian. As an Obama supporter, I hope he does.

4. Texas Gov. Rick Perry (LR: 4)

Trying to figure out what’s going to happen in the GOP race is a mug’s game. Other than Romney finishing in the top four tomorrow, I wouldn’t bet on any result. That said, I have a sneaking suspicion that Rick Perry is going to overperform tomorrow. And if that happens, I think there’s a chance that he becomes the comeback kid, the best hope for conservatives to challenge Romney. Well, either him or Gingrich. (More on that in a moment.)

The main reason for this is simple: money. Perry’s got money to stay in the race at least through Florida, and possibly beyond. If he can get past Gingrich and Santorum, he’s best-positioned to challenge Romney. Sure, he’s dumb as a box of hammers, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a shot.

5. Fomer House Speaker Newt Gingrich (LR: 1)

Newt never wanted to run for president. He wanted to sell some books, maybe get on talk shows. And then one day, he ended up the front-runner by Hobson’s choice, and for one brief moment, his ego swelled to Brobdingnagian heights, he thought he had a chance to win.

Had he done anything like, you know, organize a campaign, he might have. He might have been ready for the obvious attacks by Romney and company. Might have been ready for the withering negative ads, might have been prepared for his past statements to be examined, might have been ready to explain the commercial with him and Pelosi.

But Newt had decided to hang out in Greece and Hawai’i instead of working for the presidency. And so when the attacks came, Newt was unprepared. And that knocked him out of the upper tier of candidates.

That doesn’t mean that Newt is dead — nobody’s dead in this group. He’s still polling well in South Carolina, at least for the moment. If he can pull a top-four finish tomorrow, and a top-three finish (ideally with Paul) in New Hampshire, he can lay claim to the anti-Romney mantle — simply because he does have the resources to compete with that Santorum lacks.

I think in the end, it comes down to Newt and Perry. The candidate who does better between here and South Carolina is best positioned to challenge Romney from Florida on. And make no mistake: even if Romney can sweep the first three, unless he beats 30 percent in Iowa and South Carolina, he’s vulnerable. Newt could rise again.

6. Sarah-Jeb B. Christie-Jindal (LR: NR)

In Patrick Dennis’ marvelous and lamentably out-of-print novel First Lady: My Thirty Days Upstairs in the White House, the protagonist relates the bitter nominating fight at the Bull Finch Party’s convention in 1908. After thirty ballots, the husband of the wildly unreliable narrator somehow makes it onto the second spot on the ticket, an eventuality that leads one delegate to despairingly cry out, “for God’s sake, anybody.” Alas, the delegate asks for volunteers in vain; Butterfield ends up on the ticket, and eventually becomes president, at least until the stolen ballots surface.

Anyhow, the Republican Party is noticing that Romney is likely to win, and is currently at the for God’s sake anybody! stage of grief. And that means there is space open for a white knight to come gallivanting into the race to save the party from defeat, or Mitt, or what have you.

Jeb Bush? Sarah Palin? Bobby Jindal? Even a back-stabbing Chris Christie? Sure, none of them are likely to jump into the race at this point. But let’s face it: all of them are more likely to win the GOP nomination than Jon Huntsman or Michele Bachmann.

And so we put them on the big board this week. Incidentally, the B stands for brokered, the other possibility that is remote but possible — a scenario in which Santorum wins some states, Gingrich others, Perry still others, and then they team up as a Voltron of right-wing disaster. Possible? Folks, Michele Bachmann was considered a viable presidential candidate this cycle. Nothing is impossible.

7. Fmr. Ambassador Jon Huntsman (LR: 9)

Huntsman has crept up only because the media continues to give him far more coverage than a third-tier candidate deserves. You can argue whether Huntsman is moderate (he is, but only in relation to this field) or whether he deserves to win (he does, but only in relation to this field) or whether he’s a decent guy (he is, but…), but none of that appears to be making much difference.

The only way Huntsman will affect the race is by overperforming in New Hampshire and hurting Romney. There’s no indication he will. My guess is that after New Hampshire, Huntsman is a footnote. Maybe he can beg Obama for another ambassadorship in 2013.

8. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn. (LR: 8)

It’s been a fun six months for Minnesota DFLers. August brought us the flameout of Gov. Timmy, which was immensely gratifying, given that he’d been running for president since being re-elected governor in 2006. Then came the abrupt resignation of GOP state chair Tony Sutton, who left the party $1.9 million in debt. This was followed by the resignation of Amy Koch and the defenestration of Mike Brodkorb over an extramarital affair. And now, just a few days into the new year, Our Michele appears ready to follow Timmy into oblivion. How sweet it is.

Bachmann is, of course, going down with characteristic blindness to reality, saying she doubts polls and believes in what she’s seeing “on the ground,” but it doesn’t matter. Michele is done. The only question is whether she bothers to come back to run in the sixth, or whether she decides to go off into the world and make money. She would be an awesome Fox commentator, if only she were blond.

9. Fmr. La. Gov. Buddy Roemer (LR: 9)

Buddy Roemer is starting to annoy me. Not sure there’s anything I can put my finger on — just a general sense of neediness emanating from his campaign. I think maybe it was when he begged PPP to put him in their polling. It’s just sad. Jimmy McMillan is polling in negative numbers. Fred Karger may not exist. But do either of them bemoan their fates? No! They’re 23rd-tier candidates and they like it. They like it fine.

Roemer, I fear, is becoming Mike Gravel. He won’t go away, no matter what happens. Which is annoying, because that means I’m going to be tired of his antics for months.

 10. Jimmy “The Rent is Too Damn High” McMillan (LR: 12)

Jimmy McMillan knows the rent is too damn high. But that’s not all. As the only black candidate left in the  race, he can garner the support of all the black republicans out there. Like Herman Cain! And Michael Steele! And J.C. Watts! And…well, I’m sure there must be others. Combined with his huge base of support among those who like vanity candidates, that could propel him into the top ten! And you know what that means, right? Right? Well, if you do, let me know.

11. Fred Karger (LR: 12)

Karger continues to be at the bottom of the big group of fail. And what more can you say about him? No, really, what more can you say about him, ’cause I got nothin’.

I mean, this is the hard part of the power rankings, folks. Anyone can riff on Newt (Oh, look! He’s got a giant ego and comes up with wacky ideas and stuff! And he’s got a glass jaw!) That’s not hard. But delivering the kind of hard-hitting analysis of guys who have absolutely no chance of being recognized were they to stand in under their own photo? That takes  hard work, and maximum effort, folks. And coming up with a paragraph of filler that does nothing but pretend to complain? That’s why they pay me the big bucks.

Falling out: Herman Cain (4), Gary Johnson (10)

Democrats

1. President Barack Obama (LR: 1)

Obama will be the Democratic nominee. There is no question about that. The question is whether he can win re-election in November, and signs are increasingly positive there. Yes, Mitt Romney is in some ways the most dangerous Republican in the race, but Mitt’s major advantage — the fact that most people think he’s moderate — has been damaged by his campaign of the last five years. Add to that the fact that Mitt is an incredibly awkward campaigner, and then multiply by the fact that the economy appears to be fitfully awakening from its slumber, and you have the makings of a win for Obama — potentially a big win.

It’s early. And much can happen over the next ten months. But if trend lines hold, Obama should be able to win re-election. And then he can usher in his fascist socialist Muslim caliphate that kills Muslim children with reckless abandon while paying for compulsory gay marriages, just as his critics fear.

2. Uncommitted (LR: NR)

Cenk Uygur has been urging his fans to go vote uncommitted in Iowa, because Obama is like George W. Bush only twice as evil. That’s fine, and I wouldn’t be  surprised if “uncommitted” won 5 percent of the delegates tomorrow. Those of you familiar with the mechanics of the nominating process realize that all of those uncommitted delegates will end up being Obama delegates once the convention rolls around.

But hey, by all means, Cenk, you stir the pot. I’m sure it won’t be a huge failure or anything.

3. That Anti-Choice Douchebag (LR: 2)

You know what? I’m not going to mention that anti-choice douchebag’s name. He just wants publicity, and I’m not required to give it to him. He should have been drummed out of society after he drug Teri Schiavo’s body around the country; hell, he should have been drummed out when he was grifting back in the eighties. I’m ignoring the bastard. To hell with him.

Third Parties

1. Mayor Michael Bloomberg (Americans Elect)

Bloomberg hasn’t officially launched a candidacy, and if this goes like 2008, he may not at all. But there are some clear signs that he’s mulling it. And I think that would be awesome. What America truly wants is a plutocrat who’s out of touch with average Americans, has liberal social views, and was last seen beating up Occupy Wall Street protesters while bragging about the NYPD being his private army. He’s perfectly designed to be a dealbreaker for everyone in America except the Beltway Boys. Run, Mike, run!

2. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas (Libertarian)

Paul hasn’t ruled out a third-party run, and one assumes it would be with the party he made his last third-party run with. Paul would be interesting, no doubt; Glenn Greenwald, David Sirota, and a lot of other white guy progressives would undoubtedly declare that we just had to vote for Paul, because, I mean sure, racism sexism homophobia racism goofball economic policy states’ rights racism sexism sexism sexism screw the poor screw poor countries get out of the UN and let sick people die — but on the other hand, isolationism and weed! Of course, David Sirota and Glenn Greenwald influence far fewer voters than they think they do, and Paul’s history of being Paul has nuked any chance for him to influence more than fringe libertarians.

But Paul could siphon pure pro-life votes from Romney (he said, you may remember, that being anti-choice was the most important issue to him). He’d certainly be a wild card. I don’t think he’d pull more than 5 to 10 percent, and I think that would be mostly Republican, so I hope he runs. But I doubt it; I think he’ll go back home and run for Congress again.

3. Fmr. Republican N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson (Libertarian)

Johnson entered the GOP race because he thought Ron Paul was going to sit it out. And then Paul ran. So he left for the Libertarian Party. If Paul goes to the Libertarians, he’s gonna be hellapissed.

Johnson, for whatever reason, simply can’t generate the zany cult of personality that is the Paulbot Army. Probably that speaks well of Johnson — if I had the Paulbots defending me, I’d be pretty embarrassed. But it does mean that a Johnson run will impact the race much less than a Paul run. Glenn Greenwald thinks a lot of himself, but he doesn’t have the readership to drag Johnson past the one percent mark. I think if Paul chooses not to mount a third-party run, Johnson will get the LP nomination. I also think, as per usual, the LP nomination won’t be worth very much.

4. Donald Trump (Americans Elect)

Does anyone else think that the crash and burn of the Trumpbate makes it more likely that The Donald will run for president, simply because he can? I kind of do. Maybe it’s just because I would really, really like Donald Trump to run for president, for the lulz, and for the fact that he’d pull GOP support from any potential candidate. Enough to win? Oh, you’re hilarious with that. Enough to hurt? Yes, probably.

Of course, the other great reason for Trump to run is that he’d get stomped, which, unfortunately, is probably why he won’t. But hey, a guy can dream, right?