The Brown Note

As you may remember from four years ago, this is how we do it.

Iowa Caucuses, January 3, 2012

Republican Party

✔Mitt Romney            25%
Rick Santorum            25%
Ron Paul                 21%
Newt Gingrich            13%
Rick Perry               10%
Michele Bachmann          6%
Jon Huntsman              1%
No Preference/Other       0%
Herman Cain               0%
Buddy Roemer              0%

Democratic Party

✔Barack Obama            98%
Uncommitted/Other          2%

So Who’s Up, Who’s Down, and Who’s Out?

Who’s Up

Rick Santorum

Santorum finished just eight votes behind Mitt Romney (and that only after Karl Rove discovered an [ahem] tabulation error that favored Romney), so he’s only partly number two.* Granted, Santorum’s essential tie for first was based not so much on his own skill as Hobson’s choice — he was the only candidate who hadn’t been tried and found wanting by the Republican electorate.

This makes things very interesting for Santorum. After all, while his absurdly conservative positions on gay rights, abortion, and birth control — yes, birth control — put him way, way, way outside the mainstream of America, they don’t put him beyond the right wing of the GOP, and I can absolutely envision Santorum getting the religious right to coalesce around him between now and South Carolina as the last non-Mitt standing. On the other hand, because he hasn’t had to endure any significant barrage from Romney’s buddies on Wall Street, he could find himself napalmed into oblivion.

But given that oblivion was where he was two weeks ago, that isn’t the end of the world. At worst, Santorum has bought himself a ticket all the way to Florida; at best, he could win the nomination. Given that I can’t read his name in any context without thinking of a puerile double entendre, that could prove disastrous for me.

Barack Obama

Obama secured 98% of statewide delegates yesterday, underscoring, underlining, bolding, and italicizing the fact that he is the overwhelming preference of Democrats going into this election. I’m not going to argue Obama’s perfect, because he isn’t — but then, who is? But while you can attack Obama for his stance on education or the tactics used in prosecuting the war on terror or extending the Bush tax cuts for a year — and should — you also have to admit that his accomplishments in his first three years are significant and important.

Obama has earned a shot at a second term. And given the realities of our political system, he will be the standard-bearer for the left. If you want to move the country leftward, undercutting Obama won’t accomplish it; electing more and better liberal Senators and Representatives (and school boards, and state legislatures) will. Iowa Democrats get that, and I have a strong feeling that Democrats across the country do, too.

Newt Gingrich

This seems counterintuitive. Didn’t Newt finish a distant fourth? Well yes. Yes he did. That said, Newt beat Rick Perry, and that was his main competition here.

The old saw is that there are three tickets out of Iowa. Thanks to the weirdness of Ron Paul’s candidacy, there are really four this year. Gingrich got the fourth one, but it could be better than that; if Santorum withers under Romney’s attack, Newt is well-positioned to rise again. Polling is old in South Carolina, but Newt was doing well there when last checked. If Santorum stumbles, Gingrich will be well-positioned to coalesce support as the only guy who can stop Mitt. And that may be enough this year.

Moreover, Gingrich will play an important role regardless of his positioning, because Newt has an ego, and Mitt has bruised it. And as his speech last night showed, Gingrich is ready, willing, and able to rain down hellfire upon the well-coiffed head of Mitt Romney in revenge. And — oddly — Mitt really hasn’t been on the receiving end of attacks yet. The right has squabbled among itself. If Newt trains his guns outward, it could help him, help Santorum, and either damage or destroy Mitt. Pass the popcorn. This could be good.

Who’s Down

Mitt Romney

Yes, Romney “won” the caucuses yesterday. But his eight vote margin isn’t fooling anyone. He actually dropped in support from 2008, both in real terms and percentage-wise. He had the lowest percentage of any winning candidate in Iowa history. He did nothing to alter the conventional wisdom that the vast majority of the GOP really, really, really doesn’t like him. And his victory speech was simply awful, a reminder that Mitt really isn’t a particularly good or charismatic campaigner.

And frankly, New Hampshire won’t help this. He’s going to win it handily. But we’ve known that since 2009. Everyone expects Mitt to blow out his competition in New Hampshire. And that means he won’t get a boost by blowing out his opponents, unless he does so with epic, 60-point margins. “Winning” Iowa and winning New Hampshire would ordinarily be viewed as a knockout blow, but Mitt’s going to have to win South Carolina, too, if he wants to end this quickly.

Don’t get me wrong: the race is still Mitt’s to lose. He has far more money than Santorum, and he can grind out a win if he has to. But he has some serious, glaring weaknesses, and even if he wins, that doesn’t mean they’re going away.

Ron Paul

Paul finished third with 21 percent. That would have been impressive back in December. But after the Paul boomlet, it looks like he’s sinking back down to where he always is — somewhere in the teens, drawing enough to remain in the conversation, but not enough to threaten anything.

Paul’s failure to beat Romney is ulitimately an indictment of the Paulbot Army, who couldn’t deliver when it counted. It also suggests that the far left’s non-endorsement endorsement of Paul was exactly as useful as expected.

This doesn’t mean Paul is dead. He has the money and organization to compete all the way to June, and if he wants to bolt for a third-party run, November. But it does mean Paul is dead as a factor in the GOP nomination fight. He can rack up all the third-place finishes he wants, but it’s ultimately meaningless.

Jon Huntsman

Huntsman didn’t contest Iowa, so he can use Giuliani logic and claim his 1 percent finish doesn’t count. But it doesn’t help, either. Yes, he’s doing better in New Hampshire, and he could wound Romney there. But there’s no sign that he’s going to do anything nationally. My guess is he finishes in single-digits in the Granite State, and he’s done after that.

Cenk Uygur

Okay, Cenk isn’t running. But he did take to the Huffington Post to argue that liberals should caucus for uncommitted to protest the fascist Obama. Uncommitted drew 2 percent of delegates. Draw your own conclusions.

Who’s Out

Rick Perry
Actualy Out

Perry had one of the more epic collapses of any political figure in American history. He was winning big in September. By January, he was a national joke. His bizarre, rambling concession speech, centered on a letter from a supporter talking about how awesome Perry is, was the perfect coda to the sad spectacle of the Rick Perry campaign.

Essentially, Perry’s political career is over. It’s hard to see how he wins anything after this. And I think we’re all okay with that.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann says she’s going on after this, but it’s hard to see how. Her dismal sixth-place finish in her native state, a state she’d bet everything on, is simply not survivable. It’s hard to imagine her equaling her 6 percent tally anywhere else, and that puts her squarely in also-ran status. She has no path to the nomination. She is done.

The only question is when she pulls the ripcord. It’s going to have to be soon if she intends to run for reelection. And if she wants to be Sarah Palin Lite, she can only hurt her brand by getting mauled from sea to shining sea. That said, Michele doesn’t view reality like you or I do. She may really think she can still pull this out. It would be sad, if she wasn’t Michele Bachmann.

UPDATE: Actually Out

Bachmann evidently could read the writing on the wall; she’s giving up. It’s the right decision, which is why I’m so shocked she made it. This is, incidentally, good news for Rick Santorum.

Buddy Roemer

Roemer finished dead last, even behind Herman Cain, who was not running anymore. He was doomed already, but this should underline that his is a vanity candidacy at this point. We can start completely ignoring him now.

Jimmy “The Rent is Too Damn High” McMillan

Received no votes in Iowa. I expect him to continue on undaunted.

Fred Karger

See: Jimmy McMillan

That Anti-Choice Douchebag

I didn’t hear anything about him last night, did you? No? Good. Let’s keep it that way.

*Yes. I am twelve.