First off, I’ll admit, I’ve been derelict in my duties. I know, I have a life and all, but really, how is it I haven’t done this since South Freaking Carolina?
Oh well. I’ll try to do better.
Alabama Republican Primary, March 13, 2012
✔Rick Santorum 35% Newt Gingrich 29% Mitt Romney 29% Ron Paul 5%
Mississippi Republican Primary, March 13, 2012
✔Rick Santorum 33% Newt Gingrich 31% Mitt Romney 30% Ron Paul 4%
Hawai’i Republican Caucuses, March 13, 2012
✔Mitt Romney 45% Rick Santorum 25% Ron Paul 18% Newt Gingrich 13%
American Samoa Republican Caucuses, March 13, 2012
✔Mitt Romney* 100% *No straw poll taken. Delegates to RNC were elected by participants in caucus, all six delegates elected pledged to Romney.
So, Who’s Up, Who’s Down, Who’s Out?
Who’s Up
Rick Santorum
Santorum is clearly the big winner, and not just because he beat Mitt Romney. No, almost bigger was the fact that Santorum knocked of Newt Gingrich in two southern states, one of which borders Newt’s home state of Georgia. That Santorum — a northerner from Pennsylvania — was able to come into the south and win does damage to Newt’s raison d’être. If Newt can’t win in the south, where can he win?
Make no mistake, the delegate math is still against Santorum. He’d have to win roughly 66 percent of the outstanding delegates to win a first-ballot nomination. Considering that last night — on a good night — he got around 35 percent of delegates at stake, that’s going to be tough.
But Rick doesn’t have just one path to the nomination. If he can keep Mitt from getting to 1144 delegates, Santorum has a chance to win at the convention, especially if he’s the candidate of the party faithful. That’s not out of the question. But he’ll have to surprise in some places, like Puerto Rico, where he has a puncher’s chance in an open primary. And he probably has to win the winner-take-all Wisconsin Primary on April 3, and steal a win in California or New York. If he can do that — and it’s a big if — he can keep Romney under 1000 delegates, and give himself a chance to go into Tampa with a plausible case for the nomination.
Barack Obama
Obama benefits from a long, drawn-out Republican Primary, and he got that last night. While the math still favors Romney, it looks increasingly likely that the primary will go on through at least late April, and possibly all the way to California in June. This is fantastic news for Obama, as every dollar Mitt Romney spends attacking Rick Santorum is a dollar he can’t spend attacking Barack Obama.
Who’s Down
Mitt Romney
Romney pulled a plurality of delegates yesterday, thanks to wins in American Samoa and Hawai’i. And the delegate math is still very favorable to him. If he can win Wisconsin, New York, Puerto Rico, and California — all winner-take all states/territories that he should be favored in — it will be all-but-impossible for Santorum to keep him from taking an outright majority of delegates to Tampa. No matter how unenthusiastic Republicans are about Romney, the math makes him a strong favorite to win.
But every time he spits the bit — as he did in the south yesterday — it becomes a little harder for Mitt to wrap things up. And make no mistake, Mitt is not free and clear by a long shot. If he loses, say, California (which has an open primary, and lots of Democrats who would love to find a way to sow chaos), he very well could find himself shy of 1144. After all, while Mitt has a big lead, he still has to win about half of the remaining delegates to get over the top. A stumble in a winner-take-all state could make that difficult.
More than anything, though, it’s amazing just how much trouble Mitt finds himself in. Santorum has no real campaign infrastructure. Gingrich is a gadfly. Paul is largely irrelevant. And Mitt still can’t wrap it up. That speaks to deep, serious, and probably insoluble problems with the Romney camp. He may get the nomination — indeed, he probably will — but he will likely be the weakest nominee since Mondale in ’84.
Who’s Out
Newt Gingrich
Gingrich is gamely arguing that it isn’t over — his theory is that if Mitt is kept under 50 percent, he might be able to win a brokered convention. But the chances of that are extraordinarily slim. First, a brokered convention is most likely to skip over all three of the major candidates left, in search of a candidate who doesn’t suck. Second, if the brokered convention happens, they’re more likely to turn to Santorum, who’s got more delegates, more votes, and less baggage than Gingrich, and is considered just as conservative. Finally, most GOP insiders hate Newt, and it is GOP insiders who would rule at a brokered convention.
Had Gingrich won Alabama or Mississippi last night, he’d have a viable argument that he should stay in the race as the candidate of the south. But with Santorum evidently acceptable to the south, Gingrich has no reason to stay in the race, other than ego. Of course, Newt has plenty of ego; he may well stick around. But it’s no longer possible for him to win.
Ron Paul
Paul’s dismal showings in the south — he was in low single-digits — and his poor night overall — he added just one delegate — did nothing to right the death spiral that his campaign has been in. He never had a path to the nomination, but now he doesn’t appear to have much of a path to relevance.
The only thing to watch with Paul is whether his delegates plus Mitt’s delegates are more than 1144. Paul has, by and large, been acting as Mitt’s surrogate thus far. If Mitt comes up 30 delegates short, it’s very possible that Paul could put him over the top. That’s about the only way Paul will be relevant in Tampa.
More than anything, though, it’s amazing just how much trouble Mitt finds himself in.
It’s almost as though money isn’t all that important in elections.
Um, Robert, Mitt is still, by far, the most likely nominee, and all of his troubles prove that money is the primary reason he’s going to get it.
I didn’t say it was irrelevant; I said it wasn’t all that important. Someone who would be a very weak #1 or scrappin’ #2 is instead, after spending enormous sums, a fairly weak #1.
If you have a 3.7 GPA and I spend a billion dollars trying to raise your performance – big checks for tutors, custom software programs, incentive packages, alluring supermodels with the relevant coursework tattooed on their good bits, etc. – and your GPA goes up to 3.8, I think we can fairly say that money – while not irrelevant – is not all that important in how you do in school.
I’m honestly not sure that Romney would be either of those without the huge dollars.
Bear in mind that in 2008 Romney had just as much money and was, at best, #2, although to describe him as “scrapping” would be a stretch.
Oh, honestly — must we talk like this? Really?
Now I have to pour Purell all over my monitor again….
Man, I didn’t even go there in my mind. It’s a new era of gutter politics.
Ideas too foul for even Robert to contemplate? We have reached a new low.
Eh – not so sure.
Yes, Obama benefits from a long, drawn-out Republican primary. That primary ends as soon as Romney gets 1144 delegates. And MSNBC reports that if Gingrich drops out, 25% of his support goes to Romney.
But in Alabama and Mississippi, Gingrich suffered a big loss. Uh oh. How long will Gingrich’s benefactor keep writing big checks?
So it seems to me that everyone except Romney benefits if Gingrich keeps running up to the convention. I dispute the narrative that Santorum benefits if Gingrich gets out. Santorum has no real chance to get 1144 delegates before the convention. So Santorum’s only strategy is to keep Romney from getting 1144 delegates — by whatever means – and then plead his case on the convention floor. Thus, Santorum needs to focus on suppressing Romney’s delegate count, not increasing his own delegate count.
Maybe the Santorum people should consider a quiet contribution or two to Newt’s superPAC?
First, a brokered convention is most likely to skip over all three of the major candidates left, in search of a candidate who doesn’t suck.
First – who’s the broker? Why is an open convention being called a brokered convention? Not that you invented the term, but I am curious about this.
Second – I’ll bet $50 to your favorite charity that should an open convention ensue, the eventual winner will be someone who has won at least one of the State primaries (and will not be Ron Paul).