From a very interesting article by Shlomi Eldar on Al-Monitor, which is a very useful source of information if you follow what’s going on in the Middle East:
“Reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is stuck, because right now the United States has left Hamas on its list of terrorist organizations,” he said. Marzouk said that because his movement continues to be included on the list of “pariah organizations,” at least as far as the US is concerned, Abu Mazen finds himself in the shadow of an American threat. Should the Palestinian Authority take any steps measures to advance reconciliation with Hamas, the United States would turn off all financial aid, which now stands at $450 million per annum. “That’s a lot of money,” Marzouk added. “Abu Mazen can’t allow that.”
While it is questionable whether the United States is really threatening Abu Mazen, senior members of the Palestinian Authority have expressed an interest in advancing reconciliation with the Hamas government. They claim that as long as Hamas remains on the terror list, Israel has a solid alibi to avoid any diplomatic efforts to advance negotiations.
It is quite obvious that in the foreseeable future, the United States will not remove Hamas from its list of terrorist organizations. What Hamas is depending on, however is the more distant future, when its removal from the list could be considered, at least as far as the Americans are concerned, in exchange for some noteworthy move, such as Hamas recognizing Israel. Such steps would advance the diplomatic process in the Middle East.
But beyond this practical consideration, what is distinct about Hamas’ latest move is its underlying intent. This is yet another indication that the movement’s leader are serious about transforming Hamas from a terrorist group that controls a piece of land (which is how it is perceived today) into a serious and responsible movement that is fit to run a state. The most recent move can then be seen as the direct continuation of an interview given a month and a half ago to the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq. As Al-Monitor published back then, the Saudi newspaper reported that Meshaal authorized King Abdullah of Jordan to relay a message to Obama, stating that Hamas is prepared to accept the principle of a two-state solution, or to state it even more clearly, Hamas agrees to the 1967 borders. This lies in stark contrast to the familiar ideology proclaimed by Hamas, or at least it seemed that way until now.
If Hamas really is considering recognition of Israel, that’s a development that needs to be taken seriously. The complexities of figuring out how it would actually happen, however–what, for example, would be required for Israel to accept such recognition?–are a whole other question. In any event, the whole article is worth reading, as is the entire Al-Monitor site.
Interesting article.
The recognition of Israel is more of a political signal than anything substantive. Sure, Israel can stomp around and say that it doesn’t want to negotiate with someone who believes it shouldn’t exist. But as everyone knows that isn’t the real issue: as of right now the Palestinian-Israeli stance is so far from settlement that it’s sort of moot.
The Palestinians still haven’t come off the right of return, which is (unsurprisingly) a deal-killer for Israel. And the Israelis still haven’t cracked down on settlement building, which is (unsurprisingly) a deal-killer for Palestine.
But while it’s not going to make a huge substantive difference on its own, I think it’s encouraging because it demonstrates that the Palestinian leadership is gaining more power to be sensible w/r/t acknowledging the reality of the situation. The chances of Israel actually going away are zero. The chances of Israel losing international recognition are, similarly, zero.
The Palestinians have some good causes–but as battles go, this wasn’t a great one to pick. It’d be nice to put it by the wayside.
I’m not so sure, though, that it will happen. This particular issue is so far lost that there’s not really a negotiation and I think Palestine will kill it.
Think of it this way: the Palestinian recognition of Israel acts mostly to give the Israelis an excuse to treat Palestine worse. It doesn’t actually have any functional effect on the Israeli experience or standard of living. And recognition won’t, by any means, solve the peace problem.
Because there’s little practical benefit, Israel doesn’t have a huge incentive to give concessions. I’m not confident that the Palestinians will be able to formally acknowledge that reality.
Is Hamas really considering recognizing Israel’s right to exist? I’m not talking about some letter to the U.N. or some speech in English. That’s not all that significant. Will their leaders still whip up their constituents with speeches in Arabic exhorting them to kill Jews and wipe Israel off the face of the Earth? Will their schoolchildren get schoolbooks with maps showing Israel? Will those children be taught the history of the Holocaust? Will Hamas accept a 2-state solution as an endpoint – or as an interim step towards a 1-state solution, a state in which Jews either don’t exist or are a class of people with limited civil rights?
Hamas has made sent some rather mixed messages in the past, saying one thing in the English media and another in the Arabic media. But that sort of thing is always under a lot of scrutiny from Israel and presumably would not satisfy the US.
On the other hand, if Hamas makes public statements about recognising Israel without withdrawing them immediately afterwards, then that is extremely significant – regardless of whether they’re hoping for a 1-state solution in the end. It’s not like members of the Israeli government doesn’t make public statements in the Hebrew media where they deny the viability of a 2-state solution. Or as if the maps of Israel I got when I was in school included more than one country west of the Jordan.
The hate is not going to go away anytime soon; the best hope for the Middle East is that everyone just gets better at pretending it might.
Other than idle speculation, there’s nothing in the article to suggest that Hamas is considering the recognition of Israel. The author keeps talking about Hamas’s “latest move,” but there is no “move.” Go read the article and come back to tell us what Hamas’s “latest move” is.