From Lawyers, Guns and Money:
Prediction 1: If Obama wins the nomination and loses to McCain, Clinton supporters will angrily claim vindication, saying that it was obvious all along that Obama couldn’t win.
Prediction 2: If Clinton wins the nomination and loses to McCain, Obama supporters will angrily claim vindication, saying that it was obvious all along that Clinton couldn’t win.
Prediction 3: Whichever of prediction 1 or 2 comes to pass, the analysis therein will quickly take on the appearance of settled fact, such that two years down the line everyone will remember that it was obvious all along that Clinton/Obama couldn’t win.
To which I add Prediction 4: If Obama/Clinton wins, then two years down the line everyone will remember that it was obvious all along that McCain couldn’t win, and back in February 2008 no one was even considering the possibility that McCain could win.
If I may add a prediction:
Prediction #5: If Obama/Clinton loses it will be taken to mean that the country isn’t “ready” for a black/female president, not that people thought that McCain was a better choice.
Personally, I’m cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a Clinton or Obama win, since McCain reminds me vaguely of Bob Dole. On the other hand, I’m old enough to remember Dukakis…
I don’t think that “it was obvious all along” that Clinton couldn’t win. I do think that it’s obvious that Clinton is so reviled amongst the Rush Limbaugh set that she runs the risk of motivating them to get off their couches and into the voting booths — a problem that Obama doesn’t have. But it’s entirely possible that she could win despite that.
Prediction #6: If Obama/Clinton wins, then we’ll all tell each other, “What’s the friggin’ big deal.”
Obama’s no Kennedy (young, dashing, deeply flawed), Clinton’s no LBJ (waiting her turn in the weeds, or grassy knoll), and McCain is no Richard Nixon (pathetic loser vindicated by time, but time is not on his side).
We spend so much of our time making foolish comparisons and all bets are off with this election. This sort of operatic passion has never been seen in American politics, and perhaps never will be seen again. Enjoy the ride while you can because it’s going to be one hell of a rough landing whoever wins the booby prize that is the title of President of the United States.
Indeed, the closest comparison can be seen in this election is the election of 1864. Lincoln, who Obama is really plagiarizing from, wanted to unite a deeply fractured nation. If you look at the Obama iconography (hope’s audacity, red state-blue state sophistry, presidential bid announced at the old Illinois State House where old Abe plied his trade, etc.), you get a sense that Barack is trying to do what Shelby Foote talks about in Ken Burns’ “Civil War,” which is to complete the work that Lincoln never got the chance to do.
In a country that is rocked by teen violence, the fear of the gun (or Black man, according to Michael Moore), an educational system that would make a Dickensian villain proud, the prognostications about what will be and what is just doesn’t quite add up to anything we have yet seen.
Thank God for that!
i’m still calling the election for the GOP, same reasons i have been since way back before ’04. none of the democrats can pull off a landslide — and if the democrats get anything less than a landslide, we get a repeat of 2000 or 2004, which means the repubs get it.
besides, the country’s still too sexist and too racist for either Clinton or Obama to have much of a chance, much less a chance at a landslide. it’s a good thing they’re running; it means the day when a woman or a black man might win is that much closer, but they’re still both trailblazers who won’t get to see the end of the trail. come 2009, we’ll be greeting president McCain.
Prediction 4.1: After McCain’s defeat, the most doctrinaire wing of the Republican Party will start evangelizing like Old Testament prophets: O we have strayed, following the lead of a worldly moderate, and lo the Lord has smitten us and cast us into the wilderness of minority party status. Repent! No more moderation, for what good does that do us? Cast out the moderates and embrace the hard liners! And once we are purified, we know we can do no wrong, so crank up the dirty tricks in earnest! For extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, and moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!!!
Ok, I guess this isn’t really a prediction; Limbaugh is doing it already….
Prediction # 7 – if Hillary loses the nomination, she divorces Bill within a year. She won’t bank her Senate seat on his continued good behavior.