I don’t blame the few remaining Republicans for cherry-picking the few outliers that show a close race at this point. Sure, it’s a little silly to latch on to the one poll that shows just a 1-point lead for Obama and ignore the several that show a near-double-digit lead. But the righties are just trying to cling to a thin reed of hope in a year that offers little; if I were in their shoes, I’d be doing the same thing.
Still, barring some unforseen calamity, the race appears to be all but over. Obama’s lead in the poll of polls is near its all-time high, and FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives him a 96.3% chance of winning. At this point, an Obama landslide is significantly more likely than a McCain victory, and a McCain victory basically requires a sweep of every close state — and every close state is at least tilting Obama’s way. Yes, McCain might pick off Florida or Ohio, but he also must win Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado…his route to victory right now is treacherous and unlikely.
If you doubt the polls, just take a look at the mood inside the McCain campaign:
With despair rising even among many of John McCain’s own advisors, influential Republicans inside and outside his campaign are engaged in an intense round of blame-casting and rear-covering—-much of it virtually conceding that an Election Day rout is likely.
[…]
Top Republican officials have let it be known they are distressed about McCain’s organization. Coordination between the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee, always uneven, is now nearly dysfunctional, with little high-level contact and intelligence-sharing between the two.
“There is no communication,” lamented one top Republican. “It drives you crazy.”
At his Northern Virginia headquarters, some McCain aides are already speaking of the campaign in the past tense. Morale, even among some of the heartiest and most loyal staffers, has plummeted. And many past and current McCain advisors are warring with each other over who led the candidate astray.
One well-connected Republican in the private sector was shocked to get calls and resumes in the past few days from what he said were senior McCain aides – a breach of custom for even the worst-off campaigns.
“It’s not an extraordinarily happy place to be right now,” said one senior McCain aide. “I’m not gonna lie. It’s just unfortunate.”
The McCain campaign is in a bad spot, and I don’t envy them. It’s one thing to be Fritz Mondale in 1984 and know you don’t have a prayer — it makes it easy to throw in the towel. And it’s another to be John Kerry in 2004, and fight to the finish in a race too close to call — it’s easy to fight when you think you can win.
But the McCain campaign is just close enough to see how maybe, if everything fell just right, then possibly it could happen for them. Sure, it’s a one-in-a-million shot, but it’s the presidency; you don’t give up on that unless it’s lost. Still…there’s a 999,999 in a million chance that you’re screwed. And that makes it hard to get up in the morning and fight hard for glory, knowing that you’re probably going to lose, but not being so certain that you can be liberated from the fear of losing.
I don’t envy them at all. Still, I do enjoy the Schadenfreude of it. No doubt, there will be losing days for the Democrats in future years — the pendulum always swings back, folks — but for now, let’s enjoy the sweet tears of unfathomable sadness.
I regret to say that it is quite likely that the sadness which you detect is largely feigned. General Ripper has succeeded in his mission, which was to ensure that a Democrat would be elected President. The next step will be to ensure that the Democrat fails. This is looking more likely with each passing day, and it won’t be General Ripper’s job.
Well to be fair, it isn’t a one-in-a-million shot; apparently it is a 37-in-a-thousand shot. :D
There’s still a chance, and any chance is too much until we’re certain. I hope to point and laugh at McCain supporters in a couple of weeks. Till then…
I happened to share an airport shuttle with Ginny Thornburgh once, on the way to a conference in October 2000. Because of the date and because I remembered her being the governor’s wife when I was a kid in Pennsylvania, I asked about the last weeks of a big campaign, what that’s like for the candidate, his family, his close advisors, and she said it’s pretty much awful–nervewracking and exhausting–even if you’re winning, but especially if it’s close and you’re not winning. So she confirmed the torment of the “just close enough” situation you describe here.
Little did we know, in October 2000, how excruciating the next few months would be on this very subject.
I will be very glad when this campaign is over. Because I keep thinking about two ways McCain might yet win…or at least that Obama might lose.
1. Obama is assassinated. Yes, Biden might win on the martyr vote, but then we’d have Biden as president.
2. A “terrorist” attack. For reasons I can’t fathom, people think that McCain would be better in the war on terra. “Terrorist” is in quotes because I would find any attack that occurs within the next few weeks to be highly suspicious. Because it would benefit McCain so much. Hopefully I’m just paranoid. But as I said, I’ll be really glad when the Republicans’ temptation has passed.
Unfortunately, a terrorist attack in the next ten days intended to get McCain elected is a real threat. And it might not be a “terrorist” attack, but an actual terrorist attack. (Or an actual terrorist attack that this administration “failed” to prevent.)
Here is a link to an article by the former top counter-terrorism published on Oct. 2 warning that intelligence officials fear an attack by al Queda before the election with the goal of electing McCain:
http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/2008/10/02/why-osama-bin-laden-and-al-qaeda-might-try-to-affect-the-election-between-barack-obama-and-john-mccain.html
Here is a link to a story about an article found on a password-protected Arabic portion of an al Queda linked website that suggests that a terrorist attack on America before the election would be welcome as a way of electing McCain:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081022/ap_on_el_pr/al_qaida_us_election
Interesting, decnavda. So al Qaeda is hoping for a Republican election. Again, I ask why the halifax anyone in their right mind would think McCain the BETTER choice on terrorism? He’s the terrorists nominee fer FSM’s sake. Nonetheless, I would look carefully at any terrorist attack occurring between now and the election: it might be legitimate (so to speak) but you have to consider the possibility of it being a setup given the overwhelming advantage it would give McCain.