Get Out The Map

There’s a short story I read years ago; I’ve forgotten the title and author, but I remember the plot: A woman is living on an Earth that’s been sent spiraling into the Sun, and she’s bearing up as the world slowly comes to grips with its end. (In the end, she wakes from a fever to find out It Was Just a Dream — the Earth has in fact been sent spiraling away from the Sun. Which, of course, isn’t really much better.)

In the story, people console themselves as people do: by holding onto hope, no matter how slim. “I heard it’s colder in Toronto,” says one woman talking to another, as they discuss whether to make a break for the North Pole, delaying the inevitable destruction by a day or two. It’s an insane thing to think, of course — the world is going to hit the Sun. Everything’s going to be incinerated. Everyone’s going to die. But no matter; people will cling to what little hope they can, as long as it’s there.

I’m struck by that whenever I wander over to GOP-leaning sites. In the waning days of the campaign, people are clinging to whatever they can. “The Gallup I tracker has the lead down to 2 points!” one site will exclaim. “IBD/TIPP has it at 2.8 points!” another will exclaim. The many trackers that have the race in the 5-10 point range are studiously ignored; people grasp at what they can.

It’s understandable, of course; in 1988, I remember Al Franken going on SNL to explain how Mike Dukakis — facing a map as daunting as the one McCain faces — could still pull off the upset.

He didn’t. And neither will John McCain.

To understand why, let’s first take a look at the map as it is now.

This is at first blush a really good map if you’re Barack Obama. At second look, it’s even better. Obama has 259 electoral votes solidly in his camp. That includes Pennsylvania, which the McCain campaign has targeted hard — and which remains at a 7-9 point spread.

Moreover, look at what’s competitive. Obama has every Kerry state locked in, plus Iowa, which went for Bush. To win, Obama has to find just eleven electoral votes in the baby-blue and pink states, and there are a over a half-dozen different ways to do it. If Obama wins Virginia, or Missouri, or Indiana, or Nevada plus Colorado, or Florida, or Ohio, or North Carolina, or Colorado plus New Mexico, Obama wins the election.

McCain has tried to upset the apple cart by stealing Pennsylvania, because it’s easier than running the table. For example, let’s take a look at a map that shows McCain pulling off a stunning upset, winning a number of states that are presently leaning hard to Obama, winning every close state save for Virginia:

That’s an insanely optimistic map for McCain; polls in Florida and Ohio suggest those states will go to Obama, and Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are leaning hard to the Democrat. And yet it still isn’t good enough. Without Virginia — where Obama has a 7-9 point lead — McCain loses. And so he has to gamble and try to pick off a solid blue state like Pennsylvania.

But even if he does, it probably won’t be enough. Because Obama probably will win Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. And that leaves us with this:

And that puts Obama in the White House, without winning Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania.

Could McCain win? Anything’s possible. But it’s passing unlikely. No, Democrats shouldn’t get complacent — for God’s sake, we’re Democrats, we know better than to assume it’s in the bag. But realistically, this race has far more in common with 1992 or 1996 than 2000 or 2004. It’s far more likely that Obama will surpass 350 electoral votes than that he’ll lose.