Back in February, Dave Kilcullen said this in his testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee:
All this suggests that the most appropriate diplomatic strategy is to identify, within Pakistan, our friends and allies (civilian democratic political leaders, some officials, and much of the Pakistani people)….
Kilcullen is an actual expert who has been to the region, so it’s likely he knows something I don’t. But I find that claim more than a little odd. Contrast what Kilcullen is saying to this news story:
After Ms. McHale, the Obama administration’s new under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs, gave her initial polite presentation about building bridges between America and the Muslim world, Mr. Abbasi thanked her politely for meeting with him. Then he told her that he hated her.
“You should know that we hate all Americans,” Ms. McHale said Mr. Abbasi told her. “From the bottom of our souls, we hate you.”
According to a Pew poll, 68% of Pakistanis have an unfavorable view of the United States. In fact, of the countries Pew surveyed, there are only four where the US is more hated. If our strategy in Pakistan depends on much of the Pakistani people being our “friends and allies,” then we’re in deep trouble.
(Don’t get me wrong, I’d like ordinary Pakistanis to be friends with America. But for the most part, they’re not.)
That’s a minor point, but it ties into my growing impression that the folks who favor an continued, and expanded, US war in Afghanistan aren’t being entirely realistic. In that same testimony, Kilcullen wrote:
We need to prevent the re-emergence of an Al Qaeda sanctuary that could lead to another 9/11.
That’s just ludicrous. There’s nothing unique about Afghanistan that means that Al Qaeda can plot attacks from Afghanistan and no where else in the world. (Indeed, a significant portion of 9/11 seems to have been plotted in Germany). Even Stephen Biddle — who strongly advocates for the US to remain at war in Afghanistan — admits that preventing Al Qaeda from having a sanctuary in Afghanistan isn’t a very sensible argument.
Yes,exactly! We shouldn’t have invaded in the first place after all, didn’t the taliban say they’d hand over Bin Laden if they were presented with evidence? And as for Pakistan, they were better off fending off the taliban without U.S. help for a while.
Good catch on the article, but there is one sentence that leaps out at me. “In fact, of the countries Pew surveyed, there are only four where the US is more hated. ” I’ll have to go through the survey later and see who our top 5 are.
We as a nation obviously have to spend a generation or two beaming HBOl for free around the world and giving away development aid and such. After relying purely on the stick since the Cold War, we need about 40 years of carrots. I mean, BURMA has a nuclear weapons program; we need a few allies.
http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090803_6611.php
“…we are not only fighting hostile armies, but a hostile people, and must make old and young, rich and poor, feel the hard hand of war, as well as their organized armies. I know that this recent movement of mine through Georgia has had a wonderful effect in this respect. Thousands who had been deceived by their lying newspapers to believe that we were being whipped all the time now realize the truth, and have no appetite for a repetition of the same experience…” – General Sherman
True, but look at it this way. The Klan set up shop all over the US, but its main recruiting grounds have always been the south, because that’s where they have the largest percentage of individuals predisposed toward their worldview.
Similarly Afghanistan and Pakistan provides al queda with fertile grounds, since you have a huge group of people with islamic supremacist attitudes…anti-Semitic leanings, support for suicide bombings, and general hatred of the other. Granted, such people can be found all over the UK these days, but at least we haves some confidence their government will track them down (before, of course releasing them to Libya) while even our friends in pakistan and Afghanistan have a more problematic relationship to islamic radicalism.
that’s because these views are somewhat mainstream there, as where the klans views back in the day.
You know what would really help our credibility (and thus our hated status) in that region? Following through on our promises. As a culture, the Middle East has a long memory of misdeeds that is passed down through families. Our American attention span needs adjusting in this respect. Just because our President is different doesn’t make us a new USA to them.
Similarly Afghanistan and Pakistan provides al queda with fertile grounds, since you have a huge group of people with islamic supremacist attitudes
Weren’t the majority of the 9/11 terrorists from Saudi Arabia?
Manju, I said “There’s nothing unique about Afghanistan.” And you immediately responded by talking about “Afghanistan and Pakistan,” which sort of proves my point. Nothing about our presence in Afghanistan keeps AQ from setting up in Pakistan — obviously, since right now we’re in Afghanistan and AQ is in Pakistan (among other countries).
Most of the 9/11 bombers came from Saudi Arabia. There are plenty of places for AQ to operate and recruit from other than Afghanistan, so “preventing another 9/11” is not a reasonable justification for war in Afghanistan.
Mmm, I don’t know if I trust that survey. I think the real problem isn’t whether or not the Pakistani people are “friends and allies,” but the strict black-and-white dividing of the world into “friends” and “enemies.” I’m utterly convinced that most of that 68% don’t support al Qaeda, don’t support the Taliban, don’t support a religious overthrow of the Pakistani government, or wish ill upon the majority of the American people. That doesn’t mean they immediately snap over to doing whatever the US president asks of them. Much as many Americans will tell you, if questioned, that they don’t really hate the Afghani or Iraqi people, they just hate their (former) governments or as I’m sure is the case with many Americans they hate or have serious reservations about Afghani and Iraqi culture, I’ll bet that a majority of Pakistanis hate the American government, distrust what they understand of American culture, but don’t actually have a lot of hate left over for Americans themselves. They aren’t friends OR enemies, they’re probably much happier standing on the sidelines. Which is why coercing them (somehow) to become better “allies” wouldn’t work. And why it’s so very difficult for NATO to target the Pakistanis who are genuine fanatics without forcing the bulk of Pakistan to pick sides.
Hi, Jonathan! Nice to see you here.
I trust the Pew survey more than I trust someone who tells congress that much of the Pakistani people thinks of the US as a friend and ally. But that said, I definitely agree that just because folks don’t trust the US, that doesn’t mean they’re pro-Taliban, are radicals, etc..
As for what Afghanis think of Americans, for what it’s worth, the Pew poll also asked what folks thought of Americans. 57% said they had an unfavorable impression of Americans, and only 20% reported having a favorable opinion.
Of course, just because someone has an unfavorable opinion, doesn’t make them an enemy, or mean that they hate us. It does mean that any strategy depending on ordinary Pakistanis liking and trusting us has, as you say, a very difficult path.
Manju, if I wanted to find a boatload of wannabe suicide bombers who don’t speak a word of English (and might be semi-literate in their own languages), and don’t know jack about a technological society, then Pakistan and Afghanistan would be a good place to recruit.
However, if I wanted people to engage in missions in the USA or Europe, not so much. As has been pointed out, when Al Qaida wanted to kill a whole bunch of Americans, they didn’t go recruiting students at the local madrassa.
Usual disclaimers about terrorism aside, why should the Pakastani people be the US’s friend? That is, friends to either the government or the people? What have we ever done for them? How many US-Americans does the average Pakistani know? How many of them are whiny Ugly Americans? Most people on this relatively liberal blog seem to have an unfavorable view of the Pakastani people (i.e. the characterization of the “average Pakistani” as semi-literate and technicologically ignorant or as religious fanatic potential al Qaeda recruits). Why should the Pakastani people have any more favorable a view of US-Americans?
I don’t see any reason they should, and many reasons they should not.
Diane @ 11 —
BINGO! We have a winner!
Considering that Pakistan has both a successful rocket program, as well as nuclear technology, what’s all this idiocy about Pakistan being some illiterate country?!?
Pakistan is one of those countries stradding two eras. They have a nuclear program and an aerospace industry; they also didn’t top 50% literacy until 2003. So either extreme assumption could be perfectly valid, depending on what part of Pakistan you’re talking about.
They also have the sixth highest population in the world, which I did not know.
Pakistan is one of those countries stradding two eras. They have a nuclear program and an aerospace industry; they also didn’t top 50% literacy until 2003
Sort of like the US with its high biotech output and 51% belief in creationism.
So either extreme assumption could be perfectly valid, depending on what part of Pakistan you’re talking about.
Anecdotally, in this thread, it is the high illiteracy rate that was being talked about, not the aerospace industry. Which suggests (again, on a very limited sample, etc) that US-Americans (not that all of us who comment on Alas are) tend to think less than well of Pakastani society. Why shouldn’t they return the favor?
Dianne,
Do you really believe that, in assessing the educational level of a country’s citizens, literacy is comparable to one’s opinion on a scientific theory originated less than 150 years ago that may conflict with religious belief? How many Pakistanis do you think even have been taught enough about the theory of evolution to say whether they agree with it or not?
The country is even poorer than India, and is dumping an even higher percentage of its resources into military spending (including technological research for military purposes). I can tell you that at least in India, learning how to read, write and do basic arithmetic — enough to avoid being cheated in market transactions — is put at a much higher priority than learning a theory about how human beings came to exist in their present form. (And evolutionary theory doesn’t even conflict much with Hindu theology.) My grandmother is literate in her native dialect and in Hindi, and can do math in her head better than I can, but I doubt she’s heard of evolutionary theory.
PG: Just struck by the parallels.