Al Franken Takes the Lead

I was always an Al Franken skeptic. Don’t get me wrong — I like Al. Having talked to Al at Drinking Liberally, I really do believe that he’s running for the right reason: he really believes that he can serve his country and Minnesotans, and do it well. But because he’s a well-known figure, with some skeletons in the closet and a very strong, well-known partisan lean, I’ve worried that Franken would underperform a generic Democrat. And for most of the year, he has. Nate Silver has the state lean-Coleman, and while Norm Coleman is not a lock for reelection, he’s certainly had the inside track. He’s gained it by painting Franken as out of touch and, above all, angry.

But it’s funny: when the ship of state has run aground and everything pretty much sucks, people get…well, angry. And so Al Franken being angry loses its salience. And as Aaron at MNPublius notes, the polls have swung decisively to Franken:

Here’s what the polls this month look like so far:

10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)

10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)

10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)

10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)

10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)

The KSTP/SUSA poll is looking like the serious outlier here. While the Strib poll probably overstates Franken’s support, it at least agrees with the other polls on the leader. We’re probably looking at a narrow-but-steady lead for Franken, and given the lateness of the hour and the fact that Norm’s an incumbent, this seat goes at least into the toss-up column, especially given the number from the tilt-right Rasmussen.

This isn’t surprising, and it’s Norm’s own fault. Coleman could have staked himself out as a moderate, a pragmatist, a guy who can reach across the aisle to get things done. He could have left the questions about Franken to surrogates. Instead, he pushed ahead, trying to make the campaign about Franken. The problem is that given the Dow dropping below 9,000, unemployment spiking, housing collapsing, continued war in Iraq, and the general malaise that has engulfed the country, Al Franken occasionally being mad seems like a very rational response to reality.

Norm hasn’t given us a reason to vote for him. And the record of the GOP over the past six years certainly doesn’t help him. And so Franken has grabbed the lead, and stands no worse than an even-money chance at winning in November.

The X factor, of course, is former Sen. Dean Barkley, I-Minn. Barkley has acquitted himself well in the race, and has benefitted from the sniping between Coleman and Franken. Rasmussen indicates Barkley is pulling more from Franken than Coleman, which has been the history of the Independence Party. But the question is whether Barkley will hold those votes through November. I tend to think he will, and may even pull a bit more — but if Barkley loses votes, it will be interesting to see how he loses them. In 2002, Tim Pawlenty won big in the governor’s race because GOP-leaning Tim Penny supporters came back home in November, while DFL-leaning Penny supporters (like yours truly) did not do the same for Roger Moe. I think if anything, the opposite could happen this year; people supporting Barkley or Franken have decided that Norm Coleman is not the guy. I think it’s possible Barkley could pull more from Franken and save the election for Norm. But I think it’s more likely that in the end, DFL-leaning Barkley supporters will go to Franken to get Norm out, figuring (rightly) that Franken will be vulnerable in 2014. No matter what, it should be an awfully interesting last four weeks of the campaign.