Hulk Smashed!

I think the odds are good that Ted Stevens will lose his re-election bid:

Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) was convicted today on seven counts of failing to report more than $250,000 in improper gifts he received from 1999 to 2006, a stunning blow to a political career that has lasted more than 40 years and marked Alaska’s entire history as a part of the United States.

Stevens, 84, now faces a question over whether he will resign, and if he does not, whether he can win reelection Nov. 4 in an already tough race. At first, Stevens showed no emotion, holding his stomach as verdict was read. But a few minutes later, it seemed to sink in as Stevens sat quietly, hunched over with his hands covering his face. Stevens, visibly shaken, did not take any questions as he quickly slipped out a side door of the federal courthouse and left in a white van.

Stevens could also be sentenced to as much as five years in federal prison, although considering his age and lack of previous convictions, is unlikely to receive anywhere near the maximum sentence. Stevens’ sentencing hearing is scheduled for Feb. 25, and Stevens’ attorneys have already told Judge Emmet Sullivan they would file motions to overturn the verdict by early December.

Stevens could also appeal the decision, but would likely to have to pay a heavy political price for such a move. Alaska’s Democratic Party has already called on Stevens to resign.

To put it bluntly, this is not good for Ted, or the Republican Party. I know Alaska is the state that gave us Sarah Palin — and boy, are we all grateful down here in the lower 48 — but even a blood-red state is unlikely to send a convicted felon back to the Senate. The best-case scenario for Republicans is that Stevens wins re-election and promptly resigns, allowing Palin to appoint a successor. But frankly, Stevens was willing to run for re-election while facing felony charges; I doubt he’s going to quit now.

In the end, the conviction of Stevens is a triumph for good governance. Remember, his defense boiled down to saying, “Well, okay, some times I’d go home and I’d have a new wing added on to the house, and boy, I would have paid for that if only I could have figured out who to thank for it.” If you’re receiving so many freebies that you have no idea who’s giving them to you or why, well, let’s just say you’ve had your hand out long enough.

For the Republicans trying to hold on to at least 40 seats in the Senate, this is unhelpful to say the least. Stevens’ seat was a safe GOP seat, and it’s probably gone. While I think the Democrats are likely to peak at 58 or 59, even with Lieberman,  remember that means that the GOP will have to hope their remaining moderates like Arlen Specter and Olympia Snowe are going to hold the line on a filibuster. At worst, only the most outrageously liberal bills are going to be checked by the right, and realistically, it’s going to be a lot harder for them to hold on to every single vote without a realistic center of power, even if, as I expect, they get Joe Lieberman on their side.

In short, Stevens was one more bit of bad news for a party deep in the hurt locker. It’s no wonder that NRO is making less sence than the LaRouchies right now, or that the True Believers are already sharpening the long knives. This is a bad timeto be a Republican. And it’s only going to get worse.