Thank you all for voting on “Cause and Effect”. Despite my valiant efforts, which paralleled Dr. Stanley Kurtz’s valiant efforts, it would seem that few “Alas” readers believe either one of us. Only 1 in 8 believe that SSM can cause changes in the non-marital birth ratio and these changes can be seen in the data. (Who’d have thought?)
Here are the final results:
CHOICES AND RESULTS
- Same Sex Marriage can cause changes in the the non-marital birth ratio and these can easily be seen in the data., 1 votes, 12.50%
- Same Sex Marriage can cause changes in the the non-marital birth ratio but these are nearly impossible to see in the data., 4 votes, 50.00%
- Same Sex Marriage can not cause changes in the the non-marital birth ratio., 3 votes, 37.50%
Despite being trounced, I pledge this:
Despite this pledge, Alas readers may be spared the burden of reminding me that correlation does not mean cause and effect. Eve Tushnet, who is sick of hearing correlation doesn’t mean causation may also be spared. (See “Tired”)
Here’s why we may all be spared:
Dr. Kurtz seems to have ended his quest to waste all available ink penning articles in which he presents cherry picked data in an attempt to show that Same Sex Marriage has killed marriage in Scandinavia. Starting on Feb. 2, 2004, he published almost one a week at The NRO ; additional articles were published at The Weekly Standard. His last article on this topic appeared only a few days after I published mine showing “The American Data”.[4]
Cause and Effect? Summer vacation? You decide![5]
Epilog:
As some of you are aware, I earnestly defended my claim that it was the campaign for SSM and not Welfare Reform that caused the decrease in nonMarital births. A disinterested party speaks:
Even more interesting
No. I do not believe The Welfare Reform Act of 1996 caused the drop in non-marital birth rates in 1995. (And The Contract for America, written after most women women who gave birth in 1995 conceived their children also didn’t cause the drop.)
End Notes========
[1] Or other strange metrics he may select to diagnose the health of marriage.
[2] Can a house of card get confused? Or be unclear? Does that qualify as a mixed metaphor?
[3] Apologies to Dan J. who wants me to take the lead on this!
[4] Soon after I published my very convincing article, several anti-SSM bloggers, who previously endorsed Dr. Kurtz’s data and analysis, posted articles at MarriageDebate.com suggesting one couldn’t use the available data to prove this sort of thing. It might take decades.
[5] I also pledge to include pendantic little footnotes when commenting on Kurtz. He doesn’t do it, but it’s fun..
I don’t understand how same-sex marriage has anything to do with non-marital births. Am I missing something?
I sincerely doubt you are missing anything!
I picked that parameter because Kurtz picked it to “show” that SSM is wrecking havoc with marriage in the Netherlands. He discusses why one can’t look at the marriage rate or the divorce rate in one of his articles.
Guess what? The marriage rate and divorce rates look good in Scandinavia!
If you read the whole of Kurtz numerous articles– most telling you that “soon” he will reveal his data, you will see the definition of “cherry picking” data. He finds reasons to not look at every single reasonable parameter that might be used to assess the health of marriage. He also finds reasons to NOT look at Norway, Sweeden of Denmark when examining data on what’s happening in Scandinavia. Nope. The Netherlands is clearer!
Unfortunately, numerous people then comment “He’s proven it”! So, one does have to show that he has not….
Sad article… all the best Yeshiva
Sad article… all the best Yeshiva