Nate Silver’s current analysis of the Coleman-Franken recount:
In Minnesota’s 2006 senate race, the audit detected just 53 discrepancies out of 94,073 ballots tested, or an error rate of 0.056%. However, these are the cases of machine error only, whereas the state has a liberal voter intent law to cover cases of voter error as well during the process of an actual recount.
From our Florida data set, we believe that machine error represents approximately one-third of the total number of correctable errors. That would imply that about 0.169% of ballots — roughly 1 ballot out of every 600 cast — will be reclassified in Minnesota. Given the total number of ballots cast in Minnesota’s senate race, this translates to 4,835 ballots that will in fact be reclassified during the hand recount.
Would this number be sufficient to provide Al Franken with a victory? It is very, very close. Using the Daily Kos estimate that 52.5% of recounted ballots will go to Franken (after dropping votes for third parties), we estimate a net gain of 206 votes for him, which is almost exactly the margin by which he presently trails Norm Coleman.
Indeed, it’s not almost exactly the number; it is the number. If Silver’s math is on, there’s a chance that this recount could end with Coleman and Franken in a flat-footed tie. Which would mean Franken and Coleman would have to draw lots to determine the winner. Undoubtedly, this would lead to local GOP operative/paid blogger Michael Brodkorb running a series of all-caps headlines complaining the flipped coin came from the Denver mint, which is in a blue state, and therefore it’s totally unfair to Coleman.
Nate Silver’s math has held up so far; I’m crossing my fingers and toes that this time it’s off by, oh, say, a half-dozen votes. In Franken’s favor.
yeah, there’s really no way to cure that “partisan coin” problem – all the mint locations went blue this year.